View:
April 10, 2026
As We Expected, Russia’s Inflation Stood at 5.9% in March
April 10, 2026 5:13 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we expected, Russian inflation hit 5.9% in March owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. According to Rosstat’s announcement on April 10, prices increased by 0.6% in March on a monthly basis following a 0.7% rise the prev
U.S. March CPI - Subdued core rate provides relief
April 10, 2026 12:55 PM UTC
March CPI is as the market expected with a 0.9% increase (0.865% before rounding) led by a surge in energy, but the core rate ex food and energy shows little sign of feed through, rising by a lower than expected 0.2%, with the gain before rounding at 0.196%, the slowest since November’s subdued tw
China: Oil boosts PPI but CPI Less
April 10, 2026 7:37 AM UTC
• Given lags and the still elevated oil prices for Q2/Q3 delivery it is likely that PPI will be further boosted in the coming months. This could boost 2026 China CPI by around 0.3-0.4% and we changed our 2026 forecast to 1.4% in the March Outlook (here) -- the higher price of Fertilizers wi
April 09, 2026
Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Energy to surge, but core rate seen similar to February
April 9, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
We expect March CPI to surge by 1.0% overall, which would be the strongest rise since June 2022, seen in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However we expect only a moderate increase ex food and energy, of 0.22% before rounding, which would match that seen in February.
UK GDP Preview (Apr 16): Moving Sideways Even Before Conflict?
April 9, 2026 8:01 AM UTC
Fresh downside surprises were the story from the January GDP numbers and we expect a similarly muted outcome for the looming February numbers. There were expectations that the economy would enjoy a further successive rise in January, thereby providing the best three-month showing in two years were
April 08, 2026
FOMC Minutes from March 18: Increased risks, but still a dovish leaning
April 8, 2026 6:58 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from March 18 show greater concern over inflationary risks but with concerns also seen on risks to employment, do not appear to be hawkish. It still appears that the next move is more likely to be an ease than a hike, even if the timing for rate cuts may have been pushed back somewhat.
Ukraine War Outlook: Scenarios Updated
April 8, 2026 1:29 PM UTC
Bottom Line: With Russia maintaining its long-held demands in Ukraine, territorial disputes remain specifically regarding the status of the Donbas and other eastern oblasts, and President Trump’s attention has shifted toward the Iran conflict, our baseline scenario in Ukraine is now the war draggi
Eurozone: Manufacturing Seeing Excess Supply Not Excess Demand
April 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC
In Europe generally, but especially in the EZ, it will be manufacturing that will bear the brunt of the recent jump in energy prices, where industrial electricity prices even before the conflict started were among the highest globally. While high energy costs affect all sectors, manufacturing’s re