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April 10, 2026
U.S. March CPI - Subdued core rate provides relief
April 10, 2026 12:55 PM UTC
March CPI is as the market expected with a 0.9% increase (0.865% before rounding) led by a surge in energy, but the core rate ex food and energy shows little sign of feed through, rising by a lower than expected 0.2%, with the gain before rounding at 0.196%, the slowest since November’s subdued tw
China: Oil boosts PPI but CPI Less
April 10, 2026 7:37 AM UTC
• Given lags and the still elevated oil prices for Q2/Q3 delivery it is likely that PPI will be further boosted in the coming months. This could boost 2026 China CPI by around 0.3-0.4% and we changed our 2026 forecast to 1.4% in the March Outlook (here) -- the higher price of Fertilizers wi
April 09, 2026
U.S. Personal Income slips, Core PCE Prices remain firm
April 9, 2026 1:17 PM UTC
The latest US data is mostly on the weak side of expectations, most notably a 0.1% decline in personal income for February that significantly underperformed a 0.5% rise in spending (itself slightly below expectations) which saw the savings rate slip back after a tax cut-assisted bounce in January. 0
April 08, 2026
FOMC Minutes from March 18: Increased risks, but still a dovish leaning
April 8, 2026 6:58 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from March 18 show greater concern over inflationary risks but with concerns also seen on risks to employment, do not appear to be hawkish. It still appears that the next move is more likely to be an ease than a hike, even if the timing for rate cuts may have been pushed back somewhat.
Preview: Due April 9 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI
April 8, 2026 12:13 PM UTC
We expect February to see a third straight strong 0.4% increase in core PCE prices, while personal spending with a 0.6% increase outperforms a 0.3% rise in personal income. This will see a January bounce in savings corrected.
Eurozone: Manufacturing Seeing Excess Supply Not Excess Demand
April 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC
In Europe generally, but especially in the EZ, it will be manufacturing that will bear the brunt of the recent jump in energy prices, where industrial electricity prices even before the conflict started were among the highest globally. While high energy costs affect all sectors, manufacturing’s re
2-Week Ceasefire, Then?
April 8, 2026 10:09 AM UTC
· The ceasefire will likely involve a new normal of shipping companies paying Iran a toll. While this is adding a cost to Gulf crude oil/products and LNG, the premium will be a lot lower than the cost of an ongoing war. The U.S. and Iran will now likely be reluctant to restart the w
April 07, 2026
2yr and The Iran War
April 7, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· 2yr yields can edge lower from current less elevated levels, as DM central banks continue to try to calm fears of near-term rate hikes outside of the BOJ/RBA. However, the key swing factor remains the length of the Iran war, as that will determine the trajectory of energy prices in
April 06, 2026
U.S. March ISM Services - Slower but far from weak, with inflationary pressure rising
April 6, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
March’s ISM services index of 54.0 is weaker than expected and down from February’s 56.1 which was the strongest since July 2022. However, March’s reading remains higher than in every month of 2025, contrasting the S and P services PMI, which on Friday was revised down to a below neutral 49.8
April 03, 2026
U.S. March Employment - Strong report suggests risks clearly higher on the inflation side
April 3, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
March’s non-farm payrolls is clearly on the strong side of expectations, up by 178k and an even stronger 186k in the private sector, with minimal net downward revisions of 7k. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Less positive are a lower than expected 0.2% rise in average hourly earn
April 01, 2026
Preview: Due April 9 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI
April 1, 2026 2:44 PM UTC
We expect February to see a third straight strong 0.4% increase in core PCE prices, while personal spending with a 0.6% increase outperforms a 0.3% rise in personal income. This will see a January bounce in savings corrected.
U.S. February Retail Sales and March ADP Employment resilient, but gasoline prices may undermine consumers
April 1, 2026 1:10 PM UTC
March’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 62k is stronger than the market expected and similar to February’s 66k. February retail sales are also marginally firmer than expected, up by 0.6% overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0l;4% ex autos and gasoline. In March consumers will be dealing
Eurozone Labor Market: A Structural and Disinflationary Shift?
April 1, 2026 10:00 AM UTC
That we think the ECB is being optimistic about the real economy and labor market outlook is almost an understatement made all the more so since the outbreak of the Iran War. In the ECB’s latest baseline scenario, recession is clearly avoided and the jobless rate, while revised a little higher (
March 31, 2026
Iran War: Invasion Risks
March 31, 2026 10:55 AM UTC
· Any ground-based invasion would likely result in a long war and Iran would likely counter with attacks on energy or other key facilities around the Gulf. Sea and air based invasions are also difficult, while any victory would likely be followed by occupation. WTI oil prices would
EZ HICP Review: Headline Surges as Core Slips Back?
March 31, 2026 9:44 AM UTC
The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices has arrived but with the flash March HICP data a little below expectations, both the consensus and that of the ECB. Instead, the headline rate spiked higher to 2.5% from February’s 1.9%, but with the core rate falling back (Figure 1) underscoring
March 30, 2026
Markets: Short vs Long Iran War
March 30, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· For a 4-8 week war and 3-4 quarters of energy price normalisation, we see a 10% U.S. equity market correction in H1 2026 driven by the current Iran war and/or consumption slowing due to lower (real) wage growth, alongside still stretched valuations in equity and equity-bond terms. T
March 27, 2026
Mexico: March 25bps Cut, Then September?
March 27, 2026 8:01 AM UTC
Banxico decided to cut the policy rate by 25bps from 6.75% due to concerns over the economy, which could be hurt additionally by the Iran war. However, Banxico inflation forecasts are yet to reflect the shift in oil prices and the prospect of further upward revisions argue against a May or June cu
March 26, 2026
EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31): Headline to Surge but Core to Slip Back?
March 26, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrive in the coming week with flash March HICP data. We see the headline rate spiking higher to 2.6%-2.7 from February’s 1.9%, the former largely chiming with that implied ECB thinking from the latter’s recent updated projections. But both it
March 25, 2026
EM FX Outlook: Weathering the Storm
March 25, 2026 8:45 AM UTC
· EM currencies have seen a correction against the USD since the risk off prompted by the Iran war, but our baseline remains for a 4-8 week war (here) followed by energy prices only returning to pre-war levels by 2027 -- with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by
DM FX Outlook: The Rest of 2026
March 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC
Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by Q3 2027. This should see the USD return to a weaker profile later in the year. In our December Outlook, our favorites were the AUD and NOK based on yield spreads, but it is also worth noting th
March 24, 2026
U.S. Outlook: Investment to Lead Growth, Underlying Inflation Set to Slow
March 24, 2026 12:15 PM UTC
• The crisis in the Middle East poses upside risks to headline inflation and downside risks to activity and our baseline assumes a 4-8 week war with a partial reversal of energy prices by end Q2 (here). Our forecasts (below) include a soft patch in H2 2026. Entering 2026 however, the U.S. e
DM Rates Outlook: Mixed Policy Rate and Yield Paths
March 24, 2026 8:46 AM UTC
· The multi quarter outlook for DM rates depends on the length of the Iran war Our baseline is that it will be a 4-8 week war (here) and a 3-4 quarter retracement of oil prices back to pre-war levels – longer from Europe and Asian gas prices. We forecast WTI down to USD80-85 by June
China Outlook: Cyclical and Structural Headwinds
March 24, 2026 7:30 AM UTC
· Our baseline scenario of a 4-8 week war (here) is not a problem, aside from higher prices. We have pushed up our 2026 CPI forecast to 1.4% from 0.5% (higher food prices are also an issue), but as oil/gas prices come down, this suggests very subdued 2027 inflation, which we have cut