View:
April 08, 2026
FOMC Minutes from March 18: Increased risks, but still a dovish leaning
April 8, 2026 6:58 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from March 18 show greater concern over inflationary risks but with concerns also seen on risks to employment, do not appear to be hawkish. It still appears that the next move is more likely to be an ease than a hike, even if the timing for rate cuts may have been pushed back somewhat.
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. February and March Housing Starts and Permits - A fairly flat picture
April 8, 2026 1:42 PM UTC
Housing starts and permits data for both February and March will be released on April 29. We expect a fairly flat housing market picture to emerge, with starts falling by 7.2% in February to 1380k after a 7.2% January increase, followed by a 1.4% rise to 1400k in March. We expect permits to rise by
Ukraine War Outlook: Scenarios Updated
April 8, 2026 1:29 PM UTC
Bottom Line: With Russia maintaining its long-held demands in Ukraine, territorial disputes remain specifically regarding the status of the Donbas and other eastern oblasts, and President Trump’s attention has shifted toward the Iran conflict, our baseline scenario in Ukraine is now the war draggi
Preview: Due April 9 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI
April 8, 2026 12:13 PM UTC
We expect February to see a third straight strong 0.4% increase in core PCE prices, while personal spending with a 0.6% increase outperforms a 0.3% rise in personal income. This will see a January bounce in savings corrected.
Eurozone: Manufacturing Seeing Excess Supply Not Excess Demand
April 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC
In Europe generally, but especially in the EZ, it will be manufacturing that will bear the brunt of the recent jump in energy prices, where industrial electricity prices even before the conflict started were among the highest globally. While high energy costs affect all sectors, manufacturing’s re
2-Week Ceasefire, Then?
April 8, 2026 10:09 AM UTC
· The ceasefire will likely involve a new normal of shipping companies paying Iran a toll. While this is adding a cost to Gulf crude oil/products and LNG, the premium will be a lot lower than the cost of an ongoing war. The U.S. and Iran will now likely be reluctant to restart the w