FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 19th

May 18, 2026 9:00 PM UTC

Some better Iran headlines help mkt work off o/s moves, but not getting carried away
Bar clear positive news, stretched positioning still dominates providing capping
Oil still sets the tone, but along with other areas of risk build up
UK has labour market data, Canada CPI, neither seen implying pressur

North American Summary and Highlights 18 May

May 18, 2026 7:58 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was slightly softer with mixed headlines on Trump’s intentions regarding Iran causing some volatility. 

Chart USD/BRL Update: Consolidating sharp bounce from fresh year lows

May 18, 2026 4:28 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have posted a fresh year low around 4.8850

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - daily studies continue to rise

May 18, 2026 3:55 PM UTC

Little change, as deteriorating intraday studies and flat overbought daily stochastics keep near-term sentiment cautious 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 19th

May 18, 2026 3:29 PM UTC

Some better Iran headlines help mkt work off o/s moves, but not getting carried away
Bar clear positive news, stretched positioning still dominates providing capping
Oil still sets the tone, but along with other areas of risk build up
UK has labour market data, Canada CPI, neither seen implying pressur

Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q1 GDP - A marginal upward revision

May 18, 2026 3:14 PM UTC

We expect a preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP at 2.1%, a marginal upward revision from the advance estimate of 2.0%.

U.S. May NAHB Homebuilders Index - Still little direction in trend

May 18, 2026 2:11 PM UTC

May’s NAHB homebuilders’ index of 37 has seen a stronger than expected correction from April’s dip to 34, but remains slightly below March’s index of 38 if level with those of January and February.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Limited tests higher

May 18, 2026 1:38 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have extended to 0.7120~, where rising intraday studies are prompting a bounce towards resistance at 0.7200

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Higher in range

May 18, 2026 1:24 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a minor bounce back to resistance at 185.00

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating test of 159.00 - daily studies rising

May 18, 2026 1:04 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 159.00 is giving way to a minor pullback

USD flows: Waiver allows some respite

May 18, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

Some respite on suggestions of US temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions, before any final agreement
Mkt lifted by some US compromise and apparent responsiveness to fresh energy pressure
Day to day development swing too wildly to get carried away

Chart USD/RUB Update: Fresh year lows - prices remain under pressure

May 18, 2026 12:34 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have posted a fresh year low around 72.1100

Preview: Due May 19 - Canada April CPI - Stronger overall but with slower core rates

May 18, 2026 12:14 PM UTC

We expect April Canadian CPI to bounce to 2.9% yr/yr (2.94% before rounding) from 2.4% in March, most of the acceleration due to April 2025 having seen the abolition of a carbon tax, thus lowering the year ago base relative to March. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softe

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating gains - studies rising

May 18, 2026 11:30 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have met selling interest just beneath congestion resistance at 16.8000

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Room for lower

May 18, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

The anticipated break below 1.6000 has reached 1.59770~

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Leaning lower

May 18, 2026 9:56 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above support at the 0.9125 Fibonacci retracement