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February 16, 2026
Preview: Due February 17 - Canada January CPI - Little change from December but some underlying slowing
February 16, 2026 2:38 PM UTC
We expect January Canadian CPI to be unchanged at 2.4% yr/yr, with both December and January at 2.36% before rounding). We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softer, with CPI-Trim and CPI-Common both slowing, but CPI-Median stabilizing after a sharper fall in December.
Warsh, AI and Lower Policy Rate?
February 16, 2026 10:55 AM UTC
· Warsh will find it tricky to convince FOMC members that AI is currently boosting productivity and acting as a disinflationary force. However, Warsh could also try to get the Fed to be more forward looking and less data dependent, which could add some proactivity into Fed debates. Fo
From Trade War to Trade Truce: Washington and Delhi Recalibrate
February 16, 2026 7:50 AM UTC
The US–India interim trade pact lowers tariffs after a bruising 2025 dispute, offering relief to Indian exporters while committing New Delhi to expanded market access for American goods. Washington is presenting the deal, including India’s stated intent to import up to USD 500bn in US energy and
India’s CPI Overhaul: Smoother Prints, Deeper Scrutiny
February 16, 2026 6:37 AM UTC
India’s January 2026 CPI rose to 2.75% yr/yr, marking the launch of a rebased 2024=100 index that better reflects modern consumption patterns. Food’s reduced weight is likely to dampen headline volatility, while services, housing and discretionary spending will exert greater influence going forw