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February 11, 2026 7:06 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its January 28 meeting which provide no major surprises. The meeting saw rates left unchanged at 2.25% but noted heightened uncertainty, which the minutes also emphasize, with steady policy conditional on the economy evolving as expected.
February 11, 2026 4:16 PM UTC
We expect a 0.5% increase in January industrial production, with ISM manufacturing and manufacturing payrolls suggesting stronger data, though there is some downside risk from bad weather late in the month.
February 11, 2026 3:35 PM UTC
We expect January existing home sales to fall by 5.3% to 4.12m, more than fully erasing a 5.1% December increase. Pending home sales are signaling a sharp decline and bad weather late in the month is a further downside risk.

February 11, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
January’s non-non-farm payroll at 130k is significantly stronger than expected and even more so in the private sector at 172k. An above trend 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings, a rise in the workweek to 34.3 from 34.2 hours and a fall in unemployment to 4.3% from 4.4% leave the data as stronger

February 11, 2026 9:05 AM UTC
• The Gilt market is sensitive to the prospect that Starmer/Reeves could be replaced, resulting in some changes to the fiscal rules in the scanario of a new PM/Chancellor. Further fiscal rule refinement could be possible, but a new PM would want a political reset and this would likely pre