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February 05, 2026
Preview: Due February 27 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A modest correction from a surprisingly strong Q3
February 5, 2026 5:22 PM UTC
We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to decline by 0.3% annualized, marginally softer than an unchanged estimate made by the Bank of Canada with January’s Monetary Policy report. This would be consistent with December GDP rising by 0.1% as projected with November’s data.
U.S. December JOLTS report - Third straight decline in openings
February 5, 2026 3:20 PM UTC
December’s JOLTS report has delivered a 386k decline in job openings to 6.542m, which is the weakest level since September 2020 during the pandemic. The series is a volatile one but the decline is the third straight, the first time this has happened since July 2023.
ECB: Papering Over the Cracks
February 5, 2026 2:51 PM UTC
· As widely expected the ECB kept the policy rate unchanged at the February meeting. The broad message remains that the ECB Council is comfortable with current policy rates, which provides short-term forward guidance of no change in rates. This message came from the ECB statement an
Preview: Due February 6 - Canada January Employment - A second straight subdued month after three strong ones
February 5, 2026 2:05 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 15k in January, a second straight moderate increase following December’s 8.2k that followed three straight strong gains averaging close to 60k. We expect unemployment to remain at December’s rate of 6.8%, but to fall before rounding.
U.S. Initial Claims rise may be weather-related, but layoff announcements higher in January
February 5, 2026 1:44 PM UTC
Initial claims at 231 from 209k are higher than expected and the highest since December 6. Bad weather may have contributed to the increase, The latest week comes two weeks after January’s non-farm payroll was surveyed.
BOE March Cut and Then More
February 5, 2026 1:25 PM UTC
· Six members of the MPC appear worried about the disinflationary impact from a weak economy and four of whom actually voted for a 25bps cut at the February meeting. BOE Bailey and Mann, looking at the MPC minutes, are very close to voting for a rate cut, which suggests high confidenc
UK GDP Preview (Feb 12): Underlying Economy Fragility Continues?
February 5, 2026 11:21 AM UTC
Even given the surprisingly solid November GDP release, this merely returns the level of GDP to where it was in June, albeit briefly as for the latter. Partly undermined by wet and warm weather through the month, we see no change on the December figure, in m/m terms (Figure 1), thus no reversal of
CBR will Likely Keep the Key Rate Stable on February 13
February 5, 2026 9:07 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Following the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) 50 bps cut to 16% on December 19—driven by an accelerated disinflationary trend in Q4—we expect the CBR to hold the policy rate at 16% on February 13. This cautious stance is anticipated as the Bank monitors inflationary risks, includin