North American Summary and Highlights 28 October

October 28, 2026 7:57 PM UTC

Overview - The USD saw modest loses during Chairman Warsh’s press conference after the FOMC left rates unchanged. A Bank of Canada tightening has little impact. 

FOMC - Pause, but no clear dovish signals

October 28, 2026 7:41 PM UTC

The FOMC left rates unchanged at 3.75-4.0% as expected but still appears to be on track for a December tightening. The Fed stated accumulation of more information will help the Fed determine the appropriate stance to return inflation to the 2% target. We suspect a slowing economy and stabilizing inf

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, Oct 29

October 28, 2026 7:05 PM UTC

FOMC offers no great shocks and leaves market pricing for a Dec hike
Focus turns to the ECB, looking for any dovish deviations, with one eye on financial conditions
EUR/USD would need to regain 1.12 to point to fast money s/t profit-taking winning out, else bearish structure continues to dominate
US PC

U.S. Fed's Warsh - Monetary medicine is starting to work

October 28, 2026 6:56 PM UTC

We would not read Warsh's expressions of optimism as a clearly dovish signal. 

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - Fed holds, 10-2 vote, bullish on growth and Dec hike still seems on track

October 28, 2026 6:12 PM UTC

Limited reaction to expected pause, details still suggest Dec hike eyed, as priced
Market may be tempted to cover some fast money dollar longs intraday, but no great lasting impact
Focus shifts to presser then ECB

Chart USD/CAD Update: Further gains to remain limited

October 28, 2026 4:51 PM UTC

The anticipated break above resistance at 1.4050 has met selling interest around 1.4065/70

ECB Preview: October Hold but Markets to Focus on Response to Widening Spreads

October 28, 2026 3:55 PM UTC

The ECB is widely expected to keep rates on hold this Thursday with financial markets instead focusing on the tone of the statement and President Lagarde’s comments in the press conference. In particular, analysts will be keen to hear whether September’s hawkish language has changed given France

Bank of Canada - A cautious tightening cycle starts

October 28, 2026 3:31 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s decision to tighten by 25bps to 2.50% was as expected by the markets with the risks of elevated oil prices the principal reason behind the move. Uncertainty means the BoC will be cautious going forward, but further rate hikes look likely, if not at consecutive meetings. We now

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating - daily studies rising

October 28, 2026 2:59 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance is giving way to fresh consolidation

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Balanced above strong support - background studies under pressure

October 28, 2026 2:39 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 176.00 has bounced from just above support at the 175.30 Fibonacci retracement

Chart USD/JPY Update: Pushing higher

October 28, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

Consolidation beneath 158.00 has given way to a break in both USD- and JPY-driven trade

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Inflation outlook substantially higher, economy resilient

October 28, 2026 2:11 PM UTC

The BoC says further tightening may be needed but it will proceed carefully.

USD/CAD flows: BoC delivers a cautious hike, CAD unmoved

October 28, 2026 2:00 PM UTC

BoC sticks to its hawkish build up and deliver a hike
Forward guidance cautious and measured though, meeting by meeting assessment

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows - sterling unruffled by Budget so far, if waiting on the figures...

October 28, 2026 1:08 PM UTC

Details so far characterised broadly as expected - fiscal rules met, but with cushion used up as contingency
Bank tax as kiteflown looking the main change so far