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February 24, 2026 10:00 AM UTC
· Iran authorities appear reluctant to meet the Trump administration’s demand to stop nuclear fuel production for potential weapons. This increases the odds of a limited attack by the U.S. on Iran to 30-40% (Figure 1), which could occur as soon as this weekend. The most likely I
February 24, 2026 9:44 AM UTC
The JPY fell noticeably across the board in early European trading, as reports indicated that PM Takaichi had voiced concerns about further BOJ rate hikes in a meeting with BOJ Ueda – a further 25bps hike had been discounted by June. Into mid-morning, the JPY partially retraced some of the losse