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May 07, 2024
May 06, 2024
Preview: Due May 16 - U.S. Apr Housing Starts and Permits - Housing sector losing momentum
May 6, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
We expect April housing starts to rise by 4.5% to 1380k after a 14.7% March decline while permits fall by 1.2% to 1450k after a 3.7% March decline. This would be consistent with the housing sector losing some momentum entering Q2 in response to rising mortgage rates in Q1.
BCB Preview: 25bps or 50bps cut?
May 6, 2024 1:02 PM UTC
The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) convenes on May 8 to set the policy rate. Previous forward guidance hinted at a 50bps cut in May, but recent statements from BCB President Roberto and some weakness in the BRL have shifted expectations to a 25bps cut. However, we anticipate the BCB maintaining a 50bp
May 05, 2024
May 03, 2024
Preview: Due May 15 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Pause after a strong month
May 3, 2024 5:00 PM UTC
After a 0.7% increase in March, we expect April retail sales to rise by only 0.3%. Ex autos we expect a 0.2% increase to follow a 1.1% rise in March, while ex autos and gasoline we expect sales to be unchanged after a 1.0% increase in March which was the strongest since October 2022.
U.S. April ISM Services - Weakness may be overstated
May 3, 2024 2:24 PM UTC
April’s ISM services index of 49.4 from 51.4 has fallen below neutral for the first time since December 2022. That dip was explained by bad weather. There is no obvious erratic factor here to explain the weakness, but the details suggests that weakness may be overstated.
Russian Economy Expands by 4.2% YoY in March, and 5.4% in Q1
May 3, 2024 2:14 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 4.2% YoY in March owing to strong fiscal stimulus, high military spending, invigorating consumer demand and investments. We now foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.6% in 2024
U.S. April Employment - On the weak side in all key details, following strength in March
May 3, 2024 1:18 PM UTC
April’s non-farm payroll is on the low side of consensus across the board, with a 175k increase (though the 167k private sector rise is only modestly below consensus), with a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings, a fall in the workweek and a rise in unemployment to 3.9% from 3.8%. The data should