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April 10, 2026
As We Expected, Russia’s Inflation Stood at 5.9% in March
April 10, 2026 5:13 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we expected, Russian inflation hit 5.9% in March owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. According to Rosstat’s announcement on April 10, prices increased by 0.6% in March on a monthly basis following a 0.7% rise the prev
U.S. April Preliminary Michigan CSI - Not an extreme reaction to the energy shock
April 10, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
The preliminary April Michigan CSI of 47.6 from 53.3 is a record low but the monthly decline of 5.7 points, while significant, is not as large as a 7.7 point fall in March 2025 when tariff worries were building. Inflation expectations are up sharply on a one-year view, and modestly on a 5-10 year vi
Preview: Due April 13 - U.S. March Existing Home Sales - Trend near flat, downside risk in Q2
April 10, 2026 1:41 PM UTC
We expect a marginal 0.2% increase in March existing home sales to 4.10m leaving trend with little direction. Going forward, the Iran war poses downside risks in Q2, depending on its duration.
Canada March Employment - Subdued as expected but with a surprise bounce in wages
April 10, 2026 1:24 PM UTC
Canada’s March employment gain of 14.1k is in line with market expectations and not very impressive after a plunge of 83.9k in February that may have been exaggerated by weather. Unemployment was unchanged at 6.7% as expected. There was an upside surprise in wage growth, the hourly rate for perman
U.S. March CPI - Subdued core rate provides relief
April 10, 2026 12:55 PM UTC
March CPI is as the market expected with a 0.9% increase (0.865% before rounding) led by a surge in energy, but the core rate ex food and energy shows little sign of feed through, rising by a lower than expected 0.2%, with the gain before rounding at 0.196%, the slowest since November’s subdued tw
April 09, 2026
Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Energy to surge, but core rate seen similar to February
April 9, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
We expect March CPI to surge by 1.0% overall, which would be the strongest rise since June 2022, seen in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However we expect only a moderate increase ex food and energy, of 0.22% before rounding, which would match that seen in February.
Preview: Due April 10 - Canada March Employment - Highly volatile, but trend still looks modestly positive
April 9, 2026 1:32 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 40k in March, in a correction from an exceptionally large decline of 83.9k in February which may have been influenced by weather. While the data has been very volatile, underlying trend is probably still moderately positive. We expect an unemployment rate
U.S. Personal Income slips, Core PCE Prices remain firm
April 9, 2026 1:17 PM UTC
The latest US data is mostly on the weak side of expectations, most notably a 0.1% decline in personal income for February that significantly underperformed a 0.5% rise in spending (itself slightly below expectations) which saw the savings rate slip back after a tax cut-assisted bounce in January. 0
UK GDP Preview (Apr 16): Moving Sideways Even Before Conflict?
April 9, 2026 8:01 AM UTC
Fresh downside surprises were the story from the January GDP numbers and we expect a similarly muted outcome for the looming February numbers. There were expectations that the economy would enjoy a further successive rise in January, thereby providing the best three-month showing in two years were
April 08, 2026
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. February and March Housing Starts and Permits - A fairly flat picture
April 8, 2026 1:42 PM UTC
Housing starts and permits data for both February and March will be released on April 29. We expect a fairly flat housing market picture to emerge, with starts falling by 7.2% in February to 1380k after a 7.2% January increase, followed by a 1.4% rise to 1400k in March. We expect permits to rise by
Preview: Due April 9 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI
April 8, 2026 12:13 PM UTC
We expect February to see a third straight strong 0.4% increase in core PCE prices, while personal spending with a 0.6% increase outperforms a 0.3% rise in personal income. This will see a January bounce in savings corrected.
Eurozone: Manufacturing Seeing Excess Supply Not Excess Demand
April 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC
In Europe generally, but especially in the EZ, it will be manufacturing that will bear the brunt of the recent jump in energy prices, where industrial electricity prices even before the conflict started were among the highest globally. While high energy costs affect all sectors, manufacturing’s re
April 07, 2026
Preview: Due April 21 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Surge on gasoline prices, underlying trend subdued
April 7, 2026 6:15 PM UTC
We expect March retail sales to surge by 1.4% largely on surging gasoline prices, with sales ex auto and gasoline even stronger at 1.6%. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a rise of only 0.2%, on the weak side of a trend that has recently lost momentum.
Preview: Due April 20 - Canada March CPI - Higher on energy but BoC core rates seen close to stable
April 7, 2026 4:05 PM UTC
We expect March Canadian CPI to bounce to 2.8% yr/yr from 1.8% in February, reaching its highest since May 2024. We expect ex food and energy CPI to also pick up, to 2.3% yr/yr from 2.0%, but we expect the Bank of Canada’s three core rates to be close to stable, still slightly above the 2.0% targe
New York Fed survey shows U.S. inflation expectations higher in March, even on a 5-year view
April 7, 2026 3:14 PM UTC
The New York Fed’s March Survey of Consumer Expectations shows expectations have been lifted by the surge in energy prices, most obviously at the 1-year level, but with impacts visible at the 3-year and even 5-year levels.
U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Underlying trend remains positive
April 7, 2026 12:52 PM UTC
February durable goods orders are in line with expectations overall with a 1.4% decline led by the volatile aircraft sector correcting from recent strength, but a slightly stronger than expected ex transport increase of 0.8% maintaining a positive trend, indicating a positive business investment pic
Despite Monthly Pressures and Risks Persist, Inflation Eased to 30.9% in March
April 7, 2026 11:53 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced March inflation figures, and Turkiye’s inflation edged down to 30.9% despite inflationary risks. The moderate slowdown in March was supported by the sliding tax system and the normalization in food prices after Ramadan. Our average infla
April 06, 2026
U.S. March ISM Services - Slower but far from weak, with inflationary pressure rising
April 6, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
March’s ISM services index of 54.0 is weaker than expected and down from February’s 56.1 which was the strongest since July 2022. However, March’s reading remains higher than in every month of 2025, contrasting the S and P services PMI, which on Friday was revised down to a below neutral 49.8
Preview: Due April 7 - U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is firm
April 6, 2026 1:32 PM UTC
We expect February durable goods orders to decline by 2.2% on a correction from recent strength in aircraft, though ex transport we expect continued underlying strength to be shown, with a rise of 0.7%.
April 03, 2026
Preview: Due April 14 - U.S. March PPI - Strongest since March 2022
April 3, 2026 4:51 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 1.0% in March, which would be the strongest rise since March 2022. The rise will be led by energy, though the core rates ex food and energy at 0.5% and ex food, energy and trade at 0.4% are likely to maintain a recent acceleration.
Preview: Due April 6 - U.S. March ISM Services - February strength difficult to sustain
April 3, 2026 1:46 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM services index to slip to 55.0 from February’s 56.1, which in being the highest reading since July 2002 looked unsustainably high, even ahead of the Middle East conflict.
U.S. March Employment - Strong report suggests risks clearly higher on the inflation side
April 3, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
March’s non-farm payrolls is clearly on the strong side of expectations, up by 178k and an even stronger 186k in the private sector, with minimal net downward revisions of 7k. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Less positive are a lower than expected 0.2% rise in average hourly earn