Continuum Economics

May 07, 2024

Chart USD/MXN Update: Leaning lower

May 7, 2024 4:14 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to the anticipated break lower to 16.8000

Chart USD/CAD Update: Limited tests higher

May 7, 2024 3:47 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation following the smart bounce from above support at 1.3590/00

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 8th

May 7, 2024 3:08 PM UTC

SEK upside risks on Riksbank
German production data may underpin EUR
JPY still struggling to show general strength
AUD may test upside, but break higher still looks unlikely at this stage

Preview: Due May16 - U.S. April Industrial Production - A modest rise

May 7, 2024 2:21 PM UTC

We expect April industrial production to rise by 0.3% overall with a 0.2% increase in manufacturing. We expect utilities output to provide a lift but negatives from mining and autos.

Chart AUD/USD Update: Balanced beneath critical resistance at 0.6668/75

May 7, 2024 2:05 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed/negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Limited gains

May 7, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

Cautious tests higher have reached 166.50

Indonesia Q4 GDP Preview: Robust Start to 2024

May 7, 2024 1:22 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q1 GDP — released on May 6 — saw growth rebound to 5.1% yr/yr from 4.90% yr/yr in Q4 2023. While private consumption continued its ascent, government expenditure emerged as the key driver of Indonesia's growth narrative. Private consumption was supported by festive deman

Chart USD/JPY Update: Limited tests higher - background studies under pressure

May 7, 2024 1:18 PM UTC

Little change, as unwinding overbought intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

U.S. Fiscal Problems: 2025 More Than 2024

May 7, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Current real yields in the U.S. government bond market already large reflect the large government deficit trajectory. Even so, H1 2025 could see some extra fiscal tensions that add 30-40bps to 10yr U.S. Treasury yields as the post president election environment will either see a reelected Joe Bide

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure

May 7, 2024 1:08 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation following the bounce from support at 104.50

Psychology for major markets May 7th

May 7, 2024 10:18 AM UTC

USD tone softening as as softer non-farm payroll sustains yields drop post-FOMC.

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - prices coming under pressure

May 7, 2024 7:28 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have given way to consolidation

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Apr 30th

May 7, 2024 7:16 AM UTC

Modest reducion in CHF and JPY shorts - still extended.

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Choppy trade see room to 1.6365/1.6400 resistance

May 7, 2024 7:13 AM UTC

Bounce at the 1.6218 low see prices unwinding the oversold intraday studies

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Stretched, but still supported at 1.0955/50 area

May 7, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

Lower in range from the 1.1030 high as prices consolidate strong run-up from the 1.0855/1.0850 low of April

EUR, JPY flows: EUR edges lower, JPY decline overdone

May 7, 2024 6:51 AM UTC

Slight EUR weakness after German orders data unlikely to extend far. JPY decline this week looks overdone

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Limited gains above the 102.00 level

May 7, 2024 6:44 AM UTC

Limited above the 102.00 level as prices unwind stretched intraday studies from the 102.45 high

RBA Review: Change in wordings, no change in heart

May 7, 2024 6:11 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on May 7th has kept rates on hold and see a change wordings in forward guidance but not the meaning.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 7th

May 7, 2024 6:10 AM UTC

RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.35%
Further downside seen for USD/JPY
USD could also slip lower against riskier currencies

Asia Summary and Highlights 7 May

May 7, 2024 6:09 AM UTC

RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%

AUD/USD flows: RBA remain on hold

May 7, 2024 6:07 AM UTC

RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending corrective bounce; strong resistance at 7.2340

May 7, 2024 5:25 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 7.1650 low as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending bounce from 83.2650 low

May 7, 2024 5:17 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation and clear lift over the 83.4000 level clear the way for retest of the 83.5250 high

AUD/USD flows: Soft Q1 Retail sales

May 7, 2024 4:04 AM UTC

Australian Q1 Retail sales lower than expected

USD/JPY flows: Grinding higher

May 7, 2024 3:57 AM UTC

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi has no comment on currency intervention
Japan's Kanda says no comment on Yellen's comments on FX

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Range-bound in consolidation above 16000 level

May 7, 2024 2:55 AM UTC

Little change, as prices edged up from the 15979 low to consolidate steep drop from the 16280 high

Chart USD/THB Update: Corrective bounce from 36.50 support

May 7, 2024 2:42 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation from the 36.50 low as prices unwind oversold intraday studies

Chart USD/KRW Update: Limited bounce from the 1350.00/1347.00 support

May 7, 2024 2:35 AM UTC

Turned up in consolidation from the 1350.00/1347.00 support as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart USD/SGD Update: Higher in consolidation from the 1.3450/38 support

May 7, 2024 2:13 AM UTC

Saw bounce from the 1.3450/1.3438 support as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies to correct the steep drop from the 1.3660 high

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending corrective bounce from the 164.00 support

May 7, 2024 1:17 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 164.00 level has seen prices giving way to bounce to clear resistance at the 165.35/165.65 area.

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending corrective bounce

May 7, 2024 12:44 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 152.00/151.85 area as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart NZD/USD Update: Rang-bound in consolidation below .6050 resistance

May 7, 2024 12:26 AM UTC

Settled back from the .6050 high as prices unwind overbought intraday studies and consolidate strong run-up from the .5875 low

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating within a narrow range below .6644/50 resistance

May 7, 2024 12:10 AM UTC

Little change, as prices stays below the .6644/50 resistance to consolidate the bullish run-up from .6465 low

May 06, 2024

Psychology for major markets May 6th

May 6, 2024 6:52 PM UTC

USD tone softening as as softer non-farm payroll sustains yields drop post-FOMC.

USD/JPY Flows: JPY Consolidation with Mixed Views

May 6, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

JPY has stablised in U.S. trading, with near-term views in the market mixed.

Preview: Due May 16 - U.S. Apr Housing Starts and Permits - Housing sector losing momentum

May 6, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

We expect April housing starts to rise by 4.5% to 1380k after a 14.7% March decline while permits fall by 1.2% to 1450k after a 3.7% March decline. This would be consistent with the housing sector losing some momentum entering Q2 in response to rising mortgage rates in Q1.

BCB Preview: 25bps or 50bps cut?

May 6, 2024 1:02 PM UTC

The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) convenes on May 8 to set the policy rate. Previous forward guidance hinted at a 50bps cut in May, but recent statements from BCB President Roberto and some weakness in the BRL have shifted expectations to a 25bps cut. However, we anticipate the BCB maintaining a 50bp

GBP/USD Flows: GBP bounce but BOE Risks Still on Thursday

May 6, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

GBP has pushed higher on short-covering, but the BOE meeting could have dovish hints still on Thursday.

EUR/USD Flows: Sideways but Policy and Ukraine in Focus

May 6, 2024 7:17 AM UTC

Quiet conditions with the UK closed, but some focus on Fed and ECB prospects.

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Still weak

May 6, 2024 7:15 AM UTC

Consolidating at the 1.6235 low but weak daily and weekly studies keeps pressure on the downside

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Still firm, scope to retest 1.1050/1.1085 highs

May 6, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

Paused at the 1.1028 high as prices consolidate strong run-up from the 1.0855/1.0850 low of April

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Extending consolidation above the 100.00 level

May 6, 2024 6:34 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation from the 100.00 level with bounce correcting losses from the 104.95 high

Chart USD/MYR Update: Still heavy, 4.7360 low at risk

May 6, 2024 5:46 AM UTC

Consolidating at the 4.7360 low of last week but prices remains under pressure

Chart USD/INR Update: Limited pullback below 83.4000 level

May 6, 2024 5:30 AM UTC

Limited on break of the 83.4000 congestion as prices extend consolidation below the 83.5250 high

Asia Summary and Highlights 6 May

May 6, 2024 4:24 AM UTC

USD/JPY up a figure

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, May 6th-10th

May 6, 2024 4:20 AM UTC

USD/JPY returns to previous highs after BoJ action
Further downside seen for USD/JPY
USD could also slip lower against riskier currencies
SEK may rise as Riksbank leaves rate hike until June
GBP vulnerable to more dovish BoE stance

AUD/USD flows: Proxy supported

May 6, 2024 4:19 AM UTC

Chinese PMI and Equities positive