Continuum Economics

May 07, 2024

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Consolidating - gains to remain limited

May 7, 2024 8:28 AM UTC

The break below 0.9760 has bounced from 0.9722

Chart USD/CHF Update: Limited tests higher

May 7, 2024 8:11 AM UTC

Consolidation following the test of support within 0.9000/35 is giving way to a drift higher

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Limited gains

May 7, 2024 7:54 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to the anticipated test higher

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating - prices coming under pressure

May 7, 2024 7:40 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have given way to consolidation

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - prices coming under pressure

May 7, 2024 7:28 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have given way to consolidation

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Apr 30th

May 7, 2024 7:16 AM UTC

Modest reducion in CHF and JPY shorts - still extended.

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Choppy trade see room to 1.6365/1.6400 resistance

May 7, 2024 7:13 AM UTC

Bounce at the 1.6218 low see prices unwinding the oversold intraday studies

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Stretched, but still supported at 1.0955/50 area

May 7, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

Lower in range from the 1.1030 high as prices consolidate strong run-up from the 1.0855/1.0850 low of April

EUR, JPY flows: EUR edges lower, JPY decline overdone

May 7, 2024 6:51 AM UTC

Slight EUR weakness after German orders data unlikely to extend far. JPY decline this week looks overdone

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Limited gains above the 102.00 level

May 7, 2024 6:44 AM UTC

Limited above the 102.00 level as prices unwind stretched intraday studies from the 102.45 high

RBA Review: Change in wordings, no change in heart

May 7, 2024 6:11 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on May 7th has kept rates on hold and see a change wordings in forward guidance but not the meaning.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 7th

May 7, 2024 6:10 AM UTC

RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.35%
Further downside seen for USD/JPY
USD could also slip lower against riskier currencies

Asia Summary and Highlights 7 May

May 7, 2024 6:09 AM UTC

RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%

AUD/USD flows: RBA remain on hold

May 7, 2024 6:07 AM UTC

RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending corrective bounce; strong resistance at 7.2340

May 7, 2024 5:25 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 7.1650 low as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart USD/INR Update: Extending bounce from 83.2650 low

May 7, 2024 5:17 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation and clear lift over the 83.4000 level clear the way for retest of the 83.5250 high

AUD/USD flows: Soft Q1 Retail sales

May 7, 2024 4:04 AM UTC

Australian Q1 Retail sales lower than expected

USD/JPY flows: Grinding higher

May 7, 2024 3:57 AM UTC

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi has no comment on currency intervention
Japan's Kanda says no comment on Yellen's comments on FX

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Range-bound in consolidation above 16000 level

May 7, 2024 2:55 AM UTC

Little change, as prices edged up from the 15979 low to consolidate steep drop from the 16280 high

Chart USD/THB Update: Corrective bounce from 36.50 support

May 7, 2024 2:42 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation from the 36.50 low as prices unwind oversold intraday studies

Chart USD/KRW Update: Limited bounce from the 1350.00/1347.00 support

May 7, 2024 2:35 AM UTC

Turned up in consolidation from the 1350.00/1347.00 support as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart USD/SGD Update: Higher in consolidation from the 1.3450/38 support

May 7, 2024 2:13 AM UTC

Saw bounce from the 1.3450/1.3438 support as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies to correct the steep drop from the 1.3660 high

Chart GBP/USD Update: Range-bound in consolidation below 1.2634 high

May 7, 2024 2:00 AM UTC

Little change, with prices locked in range below the 1.2634 high of Friday

Chart EUR/USD Update: Limited pullback from the 1.0800/12 resistance

May 7, 2024 1:30 AM UTC

Little change, as prices settled back in consolidation from the 1.0812 high within a narrow range above the 1.0750 resistance turned support

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending corrective bounce from the 164.00 support

May 7, 2024 1:17 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 164.00 level has seen prices giving way to bounce to clear resistance at the 165.35/165.65 area.

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending corrective bounce

May 7, 2024 12:44 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 152.00/151.85 area as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart NZD/USD Update: Rang-bound in consolidation below .6050 resistance

May 7, 2024 12:26 AM UTC

Settled back from the .6050 high as prices unwind overbought intraday studies and consolidate strong run-up from the .5875 low

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating within a narrow range below .6644/50 resistance

May 7, 2024 12:10 AM UTC

Little change, as prices stays below the .6644/50 resistance to consolidate the bullish run-up from .6465 low

May 06, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 6 May

May 6, 2024 7:36 PM UTC

Overview - In a generally quiet session the USD held firm versus the JPY while modest slippage elsewhere faded.

Psychology for major markets May 6th

May 6, 2024 6:52 PM UTC

USD tone softening as as softer non-farm payroll sustains yields drop post-FOMC.

USD/JPY Flows: JPY Consolidation with Mixed Views

May 6, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

JPY has stablised in U.S. trading, with near-term views in the market mixed.

Preview: Due May 16 - U.S. Apr Housing Starts and Permits - Housing sector losing momentum

May 6, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

We expect April housing starts to rise by 4.5% to 1380k after a 14.7% March decline while permits fall by 1.2% to 1450k after a 3.7% March decline. This would be consistent with the housing sector losing some momentum entering Q2 in response to rising mortgage rates in Q1.

BCB Preview: 25bps or 50bps cut?

May 6, 2024 1:02 PM UTC

The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) convenes on May 8 to set the policy rate. Previous forward guidance hinted at a 50bps cut in May, but recent statements from BCB President Roberto and some weakness in the BRL have shifted expectations to a 25bps cut. However, we anticipate the BCB maintaining a 50bp

European Summary and Highlights 06 May

May 6, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

USD/JPY remains in focus in holiday thinned European trade.

GBP/USD Flows: GBP bounce but BOE Risks Still on Thursday

May 6, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

GBP has pushed higher on short-covering, but the BOE meeting could have dovish hints still on Thursday.

EUR/USD Flows: Sideways but Policy and Ukraine in Focus

May 6, 2024 7:17 AM UTC

Quiet conditions with the UK closed, but some focus on Fed and ECB prospects.

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Still weak

May 6, 2024 7:15 AM UTC

Consolidating at the 1.6235 low but weak daily and weekly studies keeps pressure on the downside

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Still firm, scope to retest 1.1050/1.1085 highs

May 6, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

Paused at the 1.1028 high as prices consolidate strong run-up from the 1.0855/1.0850 low of April

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Higher in consolidation from the 191.30 support

May 6, 2024 6:43 AM UTC

Steadied at the 191.30 support and bounce here see prices unwinding the oversold intraday studies

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Extending consolidation above the 100.00 level

May 6, 2024 6:34 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation from the 100.00 level with bounce correcting losses from the 104.95 high

Chart USD/MYR Update: Still heavy, 4.7360 low at risk

May 6, 2024 5:46 AM UTC

Consolidating at the 4.7360 low of last week but prices remains under pressure

Chart USD/INR Update: Limited pullback below 83.4000 level

May 6, 2024 5:30 AM UTC

Limited on break of the 83.4000 congestion as prices extend consolidation below the 83.5250 high

Asia Summary and Highlights 6 May

May 6, 2024 4:24 AM UTC

USD/JPY up a figure

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, May 6th-10th

May 6, 2024 4:20 AM UTC

USD/JPY returns to previous highs after BoJ action
Further downside seen for USD/JPY
USD could also slip lower against riskier currencies
SEK may rise as Riksbank leaves rate hike until June
GBP vulnerable to more dovish BoE stance

AUD/USD flows: Proxy supported

May 6, 2024 4:19 AM UTC

Chinese PMI and Equities positive

USD/JPY flows: Up a Figure on another Japanese holiday

May 6, 2024 4:12 AM UTC

USD/JPY up a figure

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending sharp bounce from the 7.1650 low

May 6, 2024 3:34 AM UTC

Bounce at the 7.1650 low see prices consolidating sharp drop from above the 7.2700 level

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Consolidating at the 16000 level, lower later

May 6, 2024 3:18 AM UTC

Break of the 16139/16100 support further extend losses from the April high at 16284 to reach the 16000 level

Chart USD/THB Update: Consolidating losses from 37.25 high

May 6, 2024 3:00 AM UTC

Break of the 36.80 congestion further extend losses from the 37.25 high to reach the 36.50 support