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April 10, 2026
As We Expected, Russia’s Inflation Stood at 5.9% in March
April 10, 2026 5:13 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we expected, Russian inflation hit 5.9% in March owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. According to Rosstat’s announcement on April 10, prices increased by 0.6% in March on a monthly basis following a 0.7% rise the prev
U.S. March CPI - Subdued core rate provides relief
April 10, 2026 12:55 PM UTC
March CPI is as the market expected with a 0.9% increase (0.865% before rounding) led by a surge in energy, but the core rate ex food and energy shows little sign of feed through, rising by a lower than expected 0.2%, with the gain before rounding at 0.196%, the slowest since November’s subdued tw
China: Oil boosts PPI but CPI Less
April 10, 2026 7:37 AM UTC
• Given lags and the still elevated oil prices for Q2/Q3 delivery it is likely that PPI will be further boosted in the coming months. This could boost 2026 China CPI by around 0.3-0.4% and we changed our 2026 forecast to 1.4% in the March Outlook (here) -- the higher price of Fertilizers wi
April 09, 2026
Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Energy to surge, but core rate seen similar to February
April 9, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
We expect March CPI to surge by 1.0% overall, which would be the strongest rise since June 2022, seen in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However we expect only a moderate increase ex food and energy, of 0.22% before rounding, which would match that seen in February.
U.S. Personal Income slips, Core PCE Prices remain firm
April 9, 2026 1:17 PM UTC
The latest US data is mostly on the weak side of expectations, most notably a 0.1% decline in personal income for February that significantly underperformed a 0.5% rise in spending (itself slightly below expectations) which saw the savings rate slip back after a tax cut-assisted bounce in January. 0
UK GDP Preview (Apr 16): Moving Sideways Even Before Conflict?
April 9, 2026 8:01 AM UTC
Fresh downside surprises were the story from the January GDP numbers and we expect a similarly muted outcome for the looming February numbers. There were expectations that the economy would enjoy a further successive rise in January, thereby providing the best three-month showing in two years were
April 08, 2026
FOMC Minutes from March 18: Increased risks, but still a dovish leaning
April 8, 2026 6:58 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from March 18 show greater concern over inflationary risks but with concerns also seen on risks to employment, do not appear to be hawkish. It still appears that the next move is more likely to be an ease than a hike, even if the timing for rate cuts may have been pushed back somewhat.
Ukraine War Outlook: Scenarios Updated
April 8, 2026 1:29 PM UTC
Bottom Line: With Russia maintaining its long-held demands in Ukraine, territorial disputes remain specifically regarding the status of the Donbas and other eastern oblasts, and President Trump’s attention has shifted toward the Iran conflict, our baseline scenario in Ukraine is now the war draggi
Eurozone: Manufacturing Seeing Excess Supply Not Excess Demand
April 8, 2026 11:13 AM UTC
In Europe generally, but especially in the EZ, it will be manufacturing that will bear the brunt of the recent jump in energy prices, where industrial electricity prices even before the conflict started were among the highest globally. While high energy costs affect all sectors, manufacturing’s re
2-Week Ceasefire, Then?
April 8, 2026 10:09 AM UTC
· The ceasefire will likely involve a new normal of shipping companies paying Iran a toll. While this is adding a cost to Gulf crude oil/products and LNG, the premium will be a lot lower than the cost of an ongoing war. The U.S. and Iran will now likely be reluctant to restart the w
April 07, 2026
Preview: Due April 21 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Surge on gasoline prices, underlying trend subdued
April 7, 2026 6:15 PM UTC
We expect March retail sales to surge by 1.4% largely on surging gasoline prices, with sales ex auto and gasoline even stronger at 1.6%. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a rise of only 0.2%, on the weak side of a trend that has recently lost momentum.
Despite Monthly Pressures and Risks Persist, Inflation Eased to 30.9% in March
April 7, 2026 11:53 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced March inflation figures, and Turkiye’s inflation edged down to 30.9% despite inflationary risks. The moderate slowdown in March was supported by the sliding tax system and the normalization in food prices after Ramadan. Our average infla
2yr and The Iran War
April 7, 2026 8:00 AM UTC
· 2yr yields can edge lower from current less elevated levels, as DM central banks continue to try to calm fears of near-term rate hikes outside of the BOJ/RBA. However, the key swing factor remains the length of the Iran war, as that will determine the trajectory of energy prices in
April 03, 2026
U.S. March Employment - Strong report suggests risks clearly higher on the inflation side
April 3, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
March’s non-farm payrolls is clearly on the strong side of expectations, up by 178k and an even stronger 186k in the private sector, with minimal net downward revisions of 7k. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Less positive are a lower than expected 0.2% rise in average hourly earn
April 02, 2026
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - A boost from returning strikers, but trend subdued
April 2, 2026 1:57 PM UTC
We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report. This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment
Russia’s Inflation Will Hover Around 5.9% in March
April 2, 2026 7:48 AM UTC
Bottom Line: After edging down to 5.9% in February from 6% in the previous month, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern moderately in March owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. March inflation figures will be anno
April 01, 2026
Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Energy to surge, but core rate seen similar to February
April 1, 2026 7:26 PM UTC
We expect March CPI to surge by 1.0% overall, which would be the strongest rise since June 2022, seen in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However we expect only a moderate increase ex food and energy, of 0.22% before rounding, which would match that seen in February.
Bank of Canada Minutes from March 18 - Too early to judge impact of war, tone far from hawkish
April 1, 2026 6:05 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its March 18 meeting, which left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected though we felt that the tone of the statement was somewhat dovish. The minutes show that the BoC felt that it was too early to assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, thou
U.S. February Retail Sales and March ADP Employment resilient, but gasoline prices may undermine consumers
April 1, 2026 1:10 PM UTC
March’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 62k is stronger than the market expected and similar to February’s 66k. February retail sales are also marginally firmer than expected, up by 0.6% overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0l;4% ex autos and gasoline. In March consumers will be dealing