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March 25, 2024 9:52 AM UTC
Market to focus on the aftermath of last week’s central bank meetings
USD/JPY may break to new high but break unlikely to be sustained
EUR/USD unlikely to start far from recent ranges
GBP may extend losses as market considers possibility of earlier rate cut
NOK/SEK may gain if Riksbank turns more dovi
February 2, 2024 10:00 AM UTC
FOMC Suggest March Easing Seen Unlikely but Q2 Remains Plausible
U.S. January Non-Farm Payrolls To Show Strong Labor Market
DXY Remains Choppy on Headlines and Geopolitical Risk
More EZ Core Disinflation Signs But Services Inflation More Stubborn
Canada November GDP looking stronger than BoC project
January 16, 2024 6:16 AM UTC
Asia Session
On Tuesday Asia session, it was reported that Iran had fired missiles into Iraq with consequent fatalities and was close to the US Consulate in Erbil. Moreover, a branch of Iranian Armed Forces are also exhibiting hostile behavior to merchant ship in the Red Sea. This is no doubt a furth
January 15, 2024 5:04 PM UTC
North American sessionA generally quiet North American session due to the US holiday saw relatively little FX movement. However, the Bank of Canada’s Q4 business and consumer surveys made for some interesting reading. The business survey showed clear signs of weakness. A net 39% of firms said thei
January 15, 2024 11:11 AM UTC
EUR/USD – EUR/USD holding in the 1.09-1.10 range for now. Divergence between ECB and Fed monetary policy expectations looks necessary to break the range, unless we see a significant change in risk sentiment.USD/JPY – USD/JPY running out of steam a bit near 146 and has overshot yield spread moves
January 15, 2024 6:11 AM UTC
Asia Session
Houthis fired an anti-ship cruise missile at a US Navy ship that was hot down by a U.S. fighter jet near the coast of Yemen and has not done any harm. This no doubt further escalates the geopolitical tension in the area as it is hard to see either the Houthis and U.S. to back down from t
January 12, 2024 4:23 PM UTC
North American sessionThe USD fell back sharply through the North American session, responding to weaker than expected PPI data. USD/JPY was the biggest mover, falling a big figure to trade below 144.50, but the AUD and CHF also made strong gains. EUR/USD and GBP/USD gains were more modest, as Europ
January 12, 2024 11:16 AM UTC
EUR/USD – EUR/USD holding in the 1.09-1.10 range for now despite stronger US CPI. Divergence between ECB and Fed monetary policy expectations looks necessary to break the range.USD/JPY – USD/JPY running out of steam a bit near 146 and has overshot yield spread moves, but weaker risk sentiment ne
January 12, 2024 10:00 AM UTC
Geopolitical conflict once again seize the headline again as the U.S. and UK launched airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen while Australia, the Netherlands, Bahrain, and Canada supported. Dozens of targets including training and drone storage facilities were stroke with the U.S. and UK launchi
January 12, 2024 5:47 AM UTC
Asia Session
Geopolitical conflict once again seize the headline again as the U.S. and UK launched airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen while Australia, the Netherlands, Bahrain, and Canada supported. Soon after the airstrike report, the United States Embassy in Iraq was also reported to be bom
January 11, 2024 4:32 PM UTC
North American sessionThe USD gained ground through the North American session, benefiting from a stronger than expected December CPI print along with another fall in continuing jobless claims and still low initial jobless claims. December CPI saw 0.3% rises in both the headline and core measures. M
January 11, 2024 11:08 AM UTC
EUR/USD – EUR/USD holding in the 1.09-1.10 range for now. Focus on the US CPI data on Thursday with USD risks slightly weighted to the downside. An upside surprise on CPI looks less likely, but the market might be more sensitive to it.USD/JPY – USD/JPY running out of steam a bit near 146 and has
January 10, 2024 4:23 PM UTC
North American sessionThe USD gained strongly against the JPY through the Noth American session, but fell back against the EUR. US short term yields actually fell modestly, so the gains against the JPY look to have been driven by the aftermath of the weak Japanese data overnight and by cross flows.
January 9, 2024 4:21 PM UTC
North American sessionThe USD advanced through the North American session, gaining around 0.3% across the board. EUR/USD dropped to test the 1.09 support area, while USD/JPY moved back up to 144.40 after resisting the firmer USD tone through the European morning. The USD benefited from the stronger
January 9, 2024 2:02 PM UTC
European Session
The USD edged slightly higher through the European morning, with only USD/JPY little changed. EUR/USD fell around 20 pips to 1.0930, and most other currencies saw a similar dip against the USD. USD/JPY was little changed around 144.German industrial production data early in the sessi
January 8, 2024 7:50 AM UTC
The weakness in Chinese equities due to the bankruptcy of the Chinese wealth manager Zhongzhi announced over the weekend is likely to keep the riskier currencies on the back foot in early trade, particularly the AUD. Zhongzhi was exposed to the Chinese property sector, and while its demise is not
January 5, 2024 10:00 AM UTC
FOMC minutes from December 13 show that while almost all participants expect lower rates to be seen by the end of 2024, they want forecasts to be treated cautiously at this point. Caution over easing and increased confidence that progress is being made on inflation are however both clear in the minu
January 5, 2024 9:55 AM UTC
US employment risks slightly on the strong sideUSD to remain well supportedEUR may fall back as core inflation continues to easeCHF strength looks overdone
The US employment report dominates Friday’s calendar. We expect a 175k increase in December’s non-farm payroll, with private payrolls up by 1
January 4, 2024 8:20 PM UTC
North American sessionThe USD was generally firmer through the North American session, gaining ground primarily against the JPY. USD/JPY rose around 40 pips to 144.60. EUR/USD was not much changed at 1.0950, but the USD made small gains against the AUD and CAD as well. USD gains were helped by stro
January 4, 2024 5:53 AM UTC
December German inflation to bounce, but less than expectedEUR/USD consequently vulnerableGBP may weaken after strong gains on WednesdayJPY weakness looks overdone medium term
Preliminary French and German December CPI are due on Thursday, along with US ADP employment and the usual claims data. There
January 3, 2024 8:45 PM UTC
North American sessionThe USD gained across the board through the North American session, with USD/JPY making the most pronounced move, rising around 90 pips to a high of 143.73, before correcting to around 143.25 after the FOMC minutes. Other currencies declined more modestly. EUR/USD saw a brief m
January 3, 2024 10:03 AM UTC
US ISM and JOLTS in focus
EUR/USD close to fair near 1.0950
JPY has upside scope against CAD and CHF
The US manufacturing ISM data is the main release on Wednesday. We expect a December ISM manufacturing index of 47.5, up from two straight months at 46.7 which generally underperformed most comparable
January 2, 2024 8:36 PM UTC
North American sessionThe USD stayed firm through the US session, gaining ground across the board, but particularly against the CAD, with USD/CAD gaining around half a figure. The EUR and JPY continued to edge a little lower after losses in the European morning, with the AUD and GBP also losing arou
December 21, 2023 11:34 AM UTC
European FX trading only saw the JPY lose some ground, but not driven by news. Flows in thin pre-Christmas conditions were the key issue. USD sentiment is neutral to mildly bearish. Fed officials pushing back against early cuts is a reason for consolidation before new data is seen in the new y
December 20, 2023 11:30 AM UTC
GBP fell after the much lower than expected UK CPI figure, with the ONS indicating that it was driven by eight sub categories. The sharp decline in core CPI from 5.7% to 5.1%, will provide comfort in itself to the BOE but will also raise questions whether UK inflation is slowing more quickly than
December 19, 2023 11:56 AM UTC
European morning session
USD/JPY continued to rise through the European morning, gaining another big figure and a half after gains in Asia, and reaching a high just below 145, as JGB yields continued to decline. The USD was otherwise modestly softer, with EUR/USD and AUD/USD up around 15 pips, and GB