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August 29, 2025
German HICP Review: Headline Back Higher But EZ Price Picture Still Reassuring?
August 29, 2025 12:12 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process hit a slightly more-than-expected hurdle in August, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1). This occurred largely due to energy base effects with food prices also contributing slightly. The result was that
India GDP Preview: Q1FY26 Growth - Services Surge, Industry Slows: India’s Uneven Q1 Recovery
August 29, 2025 4:49 AM UTC
India’s economy likely grew 6.6% yr/yr in Q1 FY26, down from 7.4% in the previous quarter, as weak private investment and soft industrial output offset robust government spending. Growth was buoyed by strong public capex and resilient services, while manufacturing lagged. Full-year GDP is forecast
August 28, 2025
Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Tariff impact slowly building
August 28, 2025 5:19 PM UTC
We expect August CPI to increase by 0.4% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.37% and 0.31%. This would be the second straight gains slightly above 0.3% in the core rate with the impact of tariffs starting to escalate.
ECB July Account: Policy ‘On Hold’ Leaves Easing Door Open But Less Widely So
August 28, 2025 12:37 PM UTC
The account of the July 23-24 ECB Council meeting saw some discussion about cutting at that juncture but with no immediate pressure to change policy rates what was then exceptional uncertainty added to arguments for keeping interest rates unchanged. In particular, it was seen that maintaining policy
U.S. Lagged Interest Rates: Only Hurting a Bit
August 28, 2025 12:08 PM UTC
A big shock from lagged higher interest rates is not being seen in the data looking at financial conditions; the household savings ratio and interest rate sensitive sectors. The impact of the Trump tariffs is still uncertainty, but our alternative scenario of a hard landing remains at 25% and ou
August 27, 2025
South Africa GDP Growth Preview: Moderate Growth Will Resume in Q2
August 27, 2025 3:22 PM UTC
Bottom line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) will announce Q2 GDP growth on September 3, and we expect that South African economy will likely grow by around 1.0%-1.2% YoY in Q2 2025. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation and interest rat
Preview: Due September 5 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Similar to July's, still not recessionary
August 27, 2025 2:20 PM UTC
We expect August’s non-farm payroll to look similar to July’s, with a rise of 65k versus 73k in July, above the 14k rise of June and the 19k rise of May but well below the trend that was running above 100k through April. We also expect unemployment to remain at July’s 4.2% rate and a second st
August 26, 2025
Turkiye GDP Growth Preview: Slowdown Will Continue in Q2
August 26, 2025 5:14 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) will announce Q2 GDP growth on September 1 and we expect that Turkish economy will expand around 1.7% -2.0% YoY backed by private consumption despite early indicators demonstrate a lower acceleration rate in domestic demand amid tightening financial
US 10yr: Fed Independence V Economy and Budget
August 26, 2025 12:14 PM UTC
10yr yields face upward pressure from Fed independence questions, but downward pressure from a slowing economy and a better supply picture with CBO estimates of USD4trn of tariff revenue over 10 years. One way to continue playing these themes is for yield curve steepening, where we see scope for the
EZ HICP and Jobs Review: Headline at Target as Services Inflation at Fresh Cycle-low
August 26, 2025 11:51 AM UTC
HICP, inflation – still at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with the likes of oil prices and tariff retaliation and a low but far from authoritative jobless rate (Figure 3) possibly accentuating existing and looming Council divides. Regardless, despite adverse
France and Italy: Deficit, ECB QT and Foreign Debt Holders Stories
August 26, 2025 7:35 AM UTC
A large budget deficit in France, looking persistent given the current political impasse, combined with ECB QT means that the market has to absorb a very large 8.5% of GDP of extra bonds. Our central scenario is that persistent French supply causes a further rise in 5yr plus French government yields
August 25, 2025
Jackson Hole: Fed/ECB/BOJ and BOE on Labor Markets
August 25, 2025 9:02 AM UTC
Fed Powell focused on the cyclical softening of employment to back a more dovish undertone. In contrast other central bank heads focused on structural labor market issues. While ECB Lagarde was pleased with the post COVID EZ picture, current economic softness still leaves us forecasting two furt
Tariffs and Tensions: India–US Trade Talks Stalled as Relations Sour
August 25, 2025 6:25 AM UTC
India–US relations have entered a tense phase after Washington doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50%, the steepest duties applied to any US trading partner. The move, tied to India’s record Russian oil imports, has derailed trade talks scheduled for late August. With USD 87bn in exports at ri
August 22, 2025
Fed Powell: Signals September Cut
August 22, 2025 2:35 PM UTC
Fed Chair Powell spent the first 10 minutes at Jackson hole reviewing current data and discussing the policy stance. Powell clearly signaled a September cut, given downside risks to employment after the July employment report revisions. However, Powell did not signal whether the move will be 25b
August 21, 2025
2025 Q2 Shadow Credit Ratings to Download in Excel
August 21, 2025 12:00 PM UTC
The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. We produce Shadow Credit Ratings for 162 countries, comparable to those from credit rating agenc
Eurozone: ECB Feels it Has More Reason to ‘Wait and See’?
August 21, 2025 10:02 AM UTC
To suggest that recent EZ real economy indicators, such as today’s August PMI flashes, have been positive would be an exaggeration. But, at the same time, the data (while mixed and showing conflicts - Figure 1) have not been poor enough to alter a probable current ECB Council mindset that the ec
Bank Indonesia Delivers Surprise Second Rate Cut to Shield Growth
August 21, 2025 5:10 AM UTC
BI is opting for early stimulus while macro buffers remain strong—stable rupiah, low inflation, and manageable deficits. However, this window may close quickly if external risks materialise. Business leaders should expect a monetary pause in Q3, but prepare for moderate volatility if inflation or
August 20, 2025
German Data Preview (Aug 29): Base Effects to Pull Headline Back Up - Temporarily?
August 20, 2025 1:39 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process continued, with the lower-than-expected July HICP numbers refreshing and reinforcing this pattern, with a 0.2 ppt drop to 1.8% y/y, a 10-mth low (Figure 1). This occurred in spite of adverse energy base effects albeit these likely to feature even more strongly in t
2025 Q2 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
August 20, 2025 12:00 PM UTC
The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. The access to our full range of scores across 174 countries corresponding to the second quarter
South Africa Inflation Surges: 3.5% YoY in June
August 20, 2025 11:12 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on August 20 that annual inflation rose to 3.5% YoY in July from 3.0% in June due to elevated prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages; housing and utilities; and restaurants and accommodation services. MoM prices surged by 0.9% in July, m
U.S./China Trade Deal: Slow Progress
August 20, 2025 10:25 AM UTC
· Overall, we would attach a 50% probability to a trade framework deal being announced in Q4, though this is unlikely to be comprehensive and could merely be a collection of measures. Even so, the risk also exists of trade negotiations dragging onto 2026 and then reaching a deal or fa
Sweden Review: Riksbank Still Flagging Final Rate Cut?
August 20, 2025 8:37 AM UTC
Although matching nearly all expectations, we are disappointed that the Riksbank did not deliver a further and probably final 25 bp rate cut this time around, especially given its repeated suggestion of prob a cut later this year. Now, there are three more policy verdicts before year-end and we thin
UK CPI Review: Special Factors Pull Inflation Even Higher, but is that an Excuse?
August 20, 2025 6:47 AM UTC
After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. And still the highest since January last year. The notable further 0.3 ppt rise in services inflation to 5.0% was also largely in lin