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August 29, 2025
German HICP Review: Headline Back Higher But EZ Price Picture Still Reassuring?
August 29, 2025 12:12 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process hit a slightly more-than-expected hurdle in August, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1). This occurred largely due to energy base effects with food prices also contributing slightly. The result was that
August 28, 2025
ECB July Account: Policy ‘On Hold’ Leaves Easing Door Open But Less Widely So
August 28, 2025 12:37 PM UTC
The account of the July 23-24 ECB Council meeting saw some discussion about cutting at that juncture but with no immediate pressure to change policy rates what was then exceptional uncertainty added to arguments for keeping interest rates unchanged. In particular, it was seen that maintaining policy
August 27, 2025
South Africa GDP Growth Preview: Moderate Growth Will Resume in Q2
August 27, 2025 3:22 PM UTC
Bottom line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) will announce Q2 GDP growth on September 3, and we expect that South African economy will likely grow by around 1.0%-1.2% YoY in Q2 2025. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation and interest rat
August 26, 2025
EZ HICP and Jobs Review: Headline at Target as Services Inflation at Fresh Cycle-low
August 26, 2025 11:51 AM UTC
HICP, inflation – still at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with the likes of oil prices and tariff retaliation and a low but far from authoritative jobless rate (Figure 3) possibly accentuating existing and looming Council divides. Regardless, despite adverse
August 25, 2025
Tariffs and Tensions: India–US Trade Talks Stalled as Relations Sour
August 25, 2025 6:25 AM UTC
India–US relations have entered a tense phase after Washington doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50%, the steepest duties applied to any US trading partner. The move, tied to India’s record Russian oil imports, has derailed trade talks scheduled for late August. With USD 87bn in exports at ri