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August 29, 2025
Preview: Due September 16 - Canada August CPI - Higher as year ago weakness drops out
August 29, 2025 7:15 PM UTC
Weakness a year ago is likely to see August Canadian CPI picking up on a yr/yr basis, we expect to 2.0% from 1.7%. The Bank of Canada’s core rates are likely to remain fairly stable, and above the 2.0% target.
Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. July Trade Balance - Deficit to rise as imports from China rebound
August 29, 2025 4:24 PM UTC
We expect a July goods trade deficit of $79.2bn, up from $60.2bn in June. The deficit will compare to a Q2 average of $64.0bn but remain well below Q1’s pre-tariff average of $130.2bn. It will be similar to where trend was before the November election result signaled higher tariffs were coming.
U.S. August Final Michigan CSI - Inflation expectations revised down
August 29, 2025 2:12 PM UTC
August’s final Michigan CSI of 58.2 is not much changed from the preliminary 58.6 but a little further off July’s 61.7. There are some surprises in the detail however, in particular a downward revision to the 5-10 year inflation view.
Preview: Due September 2 - U.S. August ISM Manufacturing - Back to neutral with firmer prices
August 29, 2025 1:52 PM UTC
We expect August’s ISM manufacturing index to rise to a neutral 50.0 more than fully reversing a dip to 48.0 in July from 49.0 in June. This would be the strongest reading since January and February edged above neutral for the first time since October 2022.
Canada Q2 GDP falls as exports plunge outweighs stronger domestic demand
August 29, 2025 1:34 PM UTC
Canada’s 1.6% annualized decline in Q2 GDP is weaker than the market expected, though in line with a -1.5% Bank of Canada forecast. Details are mixed with domestic demand positive and the GDP decline due to a plunge in exports due to US tariffs. June GDP was weaker than expected with a 0.1% declin
U.S. July Personal Income and Spending and Core PCE Prices as expected, but Advance Goods Trade Deficit up as imports rebound
August 29, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
July’s personal income and spending report is in line with expectations, with the 0.3% core PCE price index matching the core CPI, and gains of 0.4% in income and 0.5% in spending also as expected. However a rise in the July advance goods trade deficit to $103.6bn from $84.9bn is unexpected, and l