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April 26, 2024 3:32 PM UTC
While March’s 0.3% Core PCE Price Index was a little firmer before rounding, and stronger than February data that was rounded up to 0.3%, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE Price Index slowed to a 2.9% annualized pace from 3.4% in February.
April 26, 2024 1:21 PM UTC
Despite the BCB's initiation of the cutting cycle, credit is anticipated to decelerate due to monetary policy lags. Enterprises face the most significant impact, with nominal growth dropping to 4.1% in February from 12.1% a year prior. While household credit growth slows to 10.4% annually from 17%,
April 26, 2024 1:12 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As widely expected, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on April 26 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the third meeting in a row. CBR made critical changes in its key rate and inflation forecasts as it lifted its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.3-4.8% from 4-4
April 26, 2024 1:12 PM UTC
March’s personal income and spending data confirms the Q1 totals released with the GDP report. Core PCE prices at 0.3% provide some relief by avoiding the 0.4% implied by Q1’s stronger than expected 3.7% annualized rise. March rose by 0.317% before rounding with revisions to February (to 0.266%
April 26, 2024 9:30 AM UTC
Bottom line: While much focus is on the cyclical economic position to determine 2024 monetary policy prospects, the 2025-28 structural growth trajectory differs to the pre 2020 GDP trajectory for major economies. While global fragmentation has a role to play, aging populations are already having a
April 26, 2024 8:37 AM UTC
USD/JPY fell 170 pips in a few minutes, suggesting potential intervention, but this is unconfirmed. If this is intervention more is likely to be required if JPY weakness is to be stopped, but some stability may now be seen until the US opens.
April 25, 2024 7:04 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on May 1 and rates look sure to remain at the current 5.25%-5.50% target range. The statement is likely to see some adjustments to reflect recent disappointment on inflation while repeating that more confidence on inflation moving towards target is needed before easing. I
April 25, 2024 3:41 PM UTC
March personal income and spending data will be largely old news as we have already seen Q1 totals in the GDP report. The GDP details are consistent with gains of 0.6% in personal income, 0.8% in personal spending and 0.4% in core PCE prices, all 0.1% above our pre-GDP forecasts of 0.5%, 0.7% and 0.
April 25, 2024 3:25 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on April 25 despite galloping inflation, and pressure on FX lately. According to the CBRT statement, monetary policy stance will be tightened in case a significant and persist
April 25, 2024 2:14 PM UTC
March has seen a stronger than expected 3.4% increase in pending home sales. Normally pending home sales lead existing home sales but in this case we appear to be seeing a catch up with strength in February existing home sales.