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August 29, 2025
U.S. August Final Michigan CSI - Inflation expectations revised down
August 29, 2025 2:12 PM UTC
August’s final Michigan CSI of 58.2 is not much changed from the preliminary 58.6 but a little further off July’s 61.7. There are some surprises in the detail however, in particular a downward revision to the 5-10 year inflation view.
Canada Q2 GDP falls as exports plunge outweighs stronger domestic demand
August 29, 2025 1:34 PM UTC
Canada’s 1.6% annualized decline in Q2 GDP is weaker than the market expected, though in line with a -1.5% Bank of Canada forecast. Details are mixed with domestic demand positive and the GDP decline due to a plunge in exports due to US tariffs. June GDP was weaker than expected with a 0.1% declin
U.S. July Personal Income and Spending and Core PCE Prices as expected, but Advance Goods Trade Deficit up as imports rebound
August 29, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
July’s personal income and spending report is in line with expectations, with the 0.3% core PCE price index matching the core CPI, and gains of 0.4% in income and 0.5% in spending also as expected. However a rise in the July advance goods trade deficit to $103.6bn from $84.9bn is unexpected, and l
German HICP Review: Headline Back Higher But EZ Price Picture Still Reassuring?
August 29, 2025 12:12 PM UTC
Germany’s disinflation process hit a slightly more-than-expected hurdle in August, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1). This occurred largely due to energy base effects with food prices also contributing slightly. The result was that
August 28, 2025
August 26, 2025
U.S. August Consumer Confidence resilient but worries on jobs and prices increase
August 26, 2025 2:19 PM UTC
August’s Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has held up a little better than expected, particularly given a weaker preliminary August Michigan CSI, falling to 97.2 from 98.7 only because July as revised up from 97.2. There has not been much change in the index in the last four month
U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Signs of underlying improvement
August 26, 2025 12:51 PM UTC
July durable goods orders with a 2.8% decline are less weak than expected given a strong 1.1% rise ex transport, where trend appears to be gaining some momentum. While manufacturing surveys are mixed August’s S and P manufacturing survey was stronger too.
EZ HICP and Jobs Review: Headline at Target as Services Inflation at Fresh Cycle-low
August 26, 2025 11:51 AM UTC
HICP, inflation – still at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with the likes of oil prices and tariff retaliation and a low but far from authoritative jobless rate (Figure 3) possibly accentuating existing and looming Council divides. Regardless, despite adverse
August 25, 2025
U.S. July New Home Sales - Trend has little direction, prices weak
August 25, 2025 2:14 PM UTC
July new home sales at 652k are on the firm side of expectations and down 0.6% from June only because June was revised up to 656k from 627k, now up 4.1% rather than 0.6%. Trend still looks fairly stable and downside risks are fading as prospects of Fed easing increase.
August 21, 2025
Eurozone: ECB Feels it Has More Reason to ‘Wait and See’?
August 21, 2025 10:02 AM UTC
To suggest that recent EZ real economy indicators, such as today’s August PMI flashes, have been positive would be an exaggeration. But, at the same time, the data (while mixed and showing conflicts - Figure 1) have not been poor enough to alter a probable current ECB Council mindset that the ec
August 20, 2025
South Africa Inflation Surges: 3.5% YoY in June
August 20, 2025 11:12 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on August 20 that annual inflation rose to 3.5% YoY in July from 3.0% in June due to elevated prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages; housing and utilities; and restaurants and accommodation services. MoM prices surged by 0.9% in July, m
UK CPI Review: Special Factors Pull Inflation Even Higher, but is that an Excuse?
August 20, 2025 6:47 AM UTC
After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. And still the highest since January last year. The notable further 0.3 ppt rise in services inflation to 5.0% was also largely in lin
August 19, 2025
UK Labor Market: Is the BoE too Complacent?
August 19, 2025 10:10 AM UTC
Unlike the Fed, which has dual mandate of curbing inflation and promoting employment, the BoE remit is purely the former. But it is clear that labour market considerations weigh heavily on the dovish contingent of the MPC and possibly increasingly so. However, we feel that the BOE is not fully e
August 15, 2025
U.S. August Preliminary Michigan CSI - Suggests worries about jobs and prices
August 15, 2025 2:15 PM UTC
August’s preliminary Michigan CSI is a disappointment, falling to 58.6 from 61.7 in July and 60.7 in June, while remaining above the 52.2 seen in April and May. The fall was led by current conditions while inflation expectations saw a disappointing bounce.
U.S. July Industrial Production - A flat picture, but Empire State survey stronger in August
August 15, 2025 1:28 PM UTC
July industrial production has seen a 0.1% decline overall with manufacturing unchanged, both following two straight gains. Mining fell by 0.4%, a second straight drop, while weather-sensitive utilities saw a marginal 0.2% decline after a rise of 1.8% in June.
U.S. July Retail Sales - Resilient entering Q3
August 15, 2025 12:51 PM UTC
July retail sales with a 0.5% increase are in line with expectations, with net upward revisions totaling 0.4%. Ex auto sales rose by 0.3% also with 0.4% in upward revisions while ex auto and gasoline sales rose by 0.2%, here with revisions of only 0.2%. The data suggest consumer spending is holdin
August 14, 2025
Russian Economy is Slowing: GDP Growth Continued to Lose Steam in Q2 2025
August 14, 2025 9:23 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) figures, Russia's GDP expanded by 1.1% YoY in Q2, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023, driven by military spending, investments, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We think Central Bank of R
August 13, 2025
Deceleration in Inflation Resumes in Russia: 8.8% YoY in July
August 13, 2025 7:28 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data on August 13, inflation stood at 8.8% YoY in July after hitting 9.4% YoY in June, ignited by higher non-food and services prices. Despite inflation eased for a fourth straight month, we foresee inflation will continue to st
August 12, 2025
U.S. Budget moves back into deficit in July
August 12, 2025 6:27 PM UTC
Contrasting June’s $27.0bn budget surplus, July has recorded a deficit of $291.1bn, which is up from $243.7bn a year ago. Outlays bounced by 9.7% yr/yr after a 7.0% decline in June while receipts rose by only 2.5% yr/yr w3hixch is the weakest since October 2024, and down from a 12.9% rise in June.
U.S. July CPI - Core rate, particularly services, a marginal disappointment
August 12, 2025 1:02 PM UTC
July’s CPI is in line with consensus at 0.2% overall, 0.3% ex food and energy, but the core rate of 0.322% before rounding is a little high for comfort. The detail shows the acceleration from June was more in services than goods, so the story is not a simple one of tariffs.
U.S. July NFIB survey - Optimism pricks up, inflationary signals slip
August 12, 2025 11:48 AM UTC
July’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism at 100.3 from 98.6 has reached its highest level since February, regaining momentum after a pause in June. Encouragingly, inflationary signals have slipped back after a bounce in June.
August 11, 2025
August 08, 2025
Canada July Employment - A weak month after a strong month
August 8, 2025 12:54 PM UTC
Canada’s surprisingly strong June employment report has been followed by a significant correction lower in July, with a fall of 40.8k to follow a rise of 83.1k, Full time work is negative over the two months, a 51.0k fall after a 13.5k increase, while part time work with a rise of 10.3k extended a