Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Tariff impact slowly building

August 28, 2025 5:19 PM UTC

We expect August CPI to increase by 0.4% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.37% and 0.31%. This would be the second straight gains slightly above 0.3% in the core rate with the impact of tariffs starting to escalate.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, August 29th

August 28, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

JPY upside risks if Japan CPI fails to decline
European CPI unlikely to have much impact
US trade data could undermine the USD
CAD vulnerable to decline in GDP

ECB July Account: Policy ‘On Hold’ Leaves Easing Door Open But Less Widely So

August 28, 2025 12:37 PM UTC

The account of the July 23-24 ECB Council meeting saw some discussion about cutting at that juncture but with no immediate pressure to change policy rates what was then exceptional uncertainty added to arguments for keeping interest rates unchanged. In particular, it was seen that maintaining policy

U.S. Lagged Interest Rates: Only Hurting a Bit

August 28, 2025 12:08 PM UTC

 A big shock from lagged higher interest rates is not being seen in the data looking at financial conditions; the household savings ratio and interest rate sensitive sectors.  The impact of the Trump tariffs is still uncertainty, but our alternative scenario of a hard landing remains at 25% and ou

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, August 28th

August 28, 2025 3:57 AM UTC

US GDP and claims data of interest
Claims likely more important after last week’s rise
EUR/USD could continue to edge lower as confidence weakens
Scope for SEK to gain if July improvement in confidence is sustained

South Africa GDP Growth Preview: Moderate Growth Will Resume in Q2

August 27, 2025 3:22 PM UTC

Bottom line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) will announce Q2 GDP growth on September 3, and we expect that South African economy will likely grow by around 1.0%-1.2% YoY in Q2 2025. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation and interest rat

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, August 28th

August 27, 2025 2:45 PM UTC

USD becalmed as Fed expectations unlikely to move far
USD continues to follow similar path to Trump 1.0
GBP/JPY toppish as risk premia risks are on the upside
NOK/SEK bouncing from strong support with more upside scope

Preview: Due September 5 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Similar to July's, still not recessionary

August 27, 2025 2:20 PM UTC

We expect August’s non-farm payroll to look similar to July’s, with a rise of 65k versus 73k in July, above the 14k rise of June and the 19k rise of May but well below the trend that was running above 100k through April. We also expect unemployment to remain at July’s 4.2% rate and a second st