U.S. Initial Claims stay low and stable, Philly Fed picks up in April
Initial claims are unchanged at 212k, still suggesting a tight labor market in the April non-farm payroll survey week. April’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey at 15.5 from 3.2 is the highest since April 2022 and does follow recent signs of improvement in the ISM and S and P national manufacturing surveys.
Initial claims are showing exceptional stability at a low level, with five of the last six weeks coming in at 212k, the exception at 222k two weeks ago possibly a consequence of it being Easter week.
Continued claims, which cover the week before initial claims, also showed little change, a 6k decline to 1.812m. The 4-week average has been very close to 1.8m since early February.
Philly Fed detail shows new orders at 12.2 from 5.4 at their strongest since May 2022 but employment at -10.7 from -9.6 and particularly the workweek at -18.7 from -0.2 are increasingly negative.
Prices paid saw quite a sharp rise to a 4-month high of 23.0 from 3.7 while prices received saw a modest rise to 5.5 from 4.6, still below February’s 6.2 and most recent months.
Six month expectations for activity at 34.3 are down from 38.6 in March but still firm and well above February’s 7.2. Six month expectations for prices paid at 54.5 from 38.0 are the highest since June 2022 but six month prices received slipped to 34.4 from 37.1, remaining within the recent range.