FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 10th

May 9, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

GBP unlikely to extend losses on UK GDP
More risk of NOK gains than losses on CPI
CAD may start to underperform on the crosses
USD strength to start to wane

North American Summary and Highlights 9 May

May 9, 2024 7:23 PM UTC

Overview - The GBP slipped on the BoE decision but the USD ended softer across the board after a rise in initial jobless claims.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 10th

May 9, 2024 3:15 PM UTC

GBP unlikely to extend losses on UK GDP
More risk of NOK gains than losses on CPI
CAD may start to underperform on the crosses
USD strength to start to wane

USD flows: USD slips lower on higher initial claims

May 9, 2024 1:04 PM UTC

Initial claims highest since August, USD lower with yields

U.S. Initial Claims rise but signs of labor market slowing still tentative

May 9, 2024 12:44 PM UTC

Initial claims at 231k from 209k in the first week of May are the highest since August 26, and coming after a slower payroll gain for April add to what remain tentative hints of labor market cooling.

GBP flows: GBP weakens as 2 MPC members vote for a rate cut

May 9, 2024 11:19 AM UTC

UK rates left unchanged, but deputy governor Ramsden joins Dhingra in voting for a cut.

European Summary and Highlights 09 May

May 9, 2024 11:12 AM UTC

The USD edged higher through the European morning, gaining a little ground against everything but GBP, with GBP/USD little changed. 

Psychology for major markets May 9th

May 9, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

USD mostly steady but JPY edging lower again despite intervention threat

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 9th

May 9, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

Some risk of more dovish BoE stance
EUR/GBP risks to the upside
JPY weakness looks unlikely to persist
US jobless claims the US data focus

JPY flows: JPY still soft despite hawkish BoJ

May 9, 2024 6:35 AM UTC

Boj sounded hawkish, but JPY softer as cash earnings disappoint. 

Asia Summary and Highlights 9 May

May 9, 2024 5:59 AM UTC

BoJ summary of opinion shows more hawkish members but March wage data disappoints

USD/JPY flows: Continue to be higher after BoJ summary of opinion

May 9, 2024 5:59 AM UTC

BoJ summary of opinion shows more hawkish members
But March wage data disappoints

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 9th

May 8, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

Some risk of more dovish BoE stance
EUR/GBP risks to the upside
JPY weakness looks unlikely to persist
US jobless claims the US data focus

North American Summary and Highlights 8 May

May 8, 2024 7:29 PM UTC

Overview - The highlight of a quiet session was modest SEK losses after a 25bps Riksbank easing.  

European Summary and Highlights 08 May

May 8, 2024 11:01 AM UTC

EUR/USD and USD/JPY both gained around 10 pips through the European morning.

Psychology for major markets May 8th

May 8, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

USD mostly steady but JPY edging lower again despite intervention threat

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 8th

May 8, 2024 8:59 AM UTC

SEK dips on Riksbank
German production data supports EUR
JPY still struggling to show general strength
AUD may test upside, but break higher still looks unlikely at this stage

SEK flows: SEK lower after Riksbank cut

May 8, 2024 7:52 AM UTC

Riksbank cut rates as most expected, and guide for 2 more cuts this year. SEK lower, but remains at low levels and has scope to rally.

EUR, JPY, SEK flows: Firm USD tone hard to justify, SEK in focus

May 8, 2024 6:52 AM UTC

USD firm overnight without an obvious rationale. German production data EUR positive. JPY softening but BoJ risks rising. Riksbank meeting in focus.

Asia Summary and Highlights 8 May

May 8, 2024 5:23 AM UTC

USD/JPY up three days in a row and drew verbal intervention from Japanese finance minister

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 8th

May 8, 2024 5:20 AM UTC

SEK upside risks on Riksbank
German production data may underpin EUR
JPY still struggling to show general strength
AUD may test upside, but break higher still looks unlikely at this stage

AUD/USD flows: Dragged by regional sentiment

May 8, 2024 5:17 AM UTC

Soft regional sentiment and strong USD

USD/JPY flows: Up three in a row

May 8, 2024 5:00 AM UTC

USD/JPY up three days in a row
Drew verbal intervention from Japanese finance minister

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights

May 8, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as the greenback stays solid after some modest volatility. THB saw the largest losses of 0.30%, followed by SGD 0.24%, CNH and IDR 0.15%, CNY 0.14%, TWD 0.06%, HKD 0.04%, INR and PHP 0.02%; the only winners are KRW 0.22% and MYR 0.01%.

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 8th

May 7, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

SEK upside risks on Riksbank
German production data may underpin EUR
JPY still struggling to show general strength
AUD may test upside, but break higher still looks unlikely at this stage

North American Summary and Highlights 7 May

May 7, 2024 7:57 PM UTC

Overview - In a day of limited news the USD advanced as equity gains faded.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 8th

May 7, 2024 3:08 PM UTC

SEK upside risks on Riksbank
German production data may underpin EUR
JPY still struggling to show general strength
AUD may test upside, but break higher still looks unlikely at this stage

Preview: Due May16 - U.S. April Industrial Production - A modest rise

May 7, 2024 2:21 PM UTC

We expect April industrial production to rise by 0.3% overall with a 0.2% increase in manufacturing. We expect utilities output to provide a lift but negatives from mining and autos. 

European Summary and Highlights 07 May

May 7, 2024 10:27 AM UTC

A fairly quiet European morning saw a modest dip in EUR/USD early on as German factory orders data showed a weaker than expected 0.4% decline in March.

Psychology for major markets May 7th

May 7, 2024 10:18 AM UTC

USD tone softening as as softer non-farm payroll sustains yields drop post-FOMC. 

EUR, JPY flows: EUR edges lower, JPY decline overdone

May 7, 2024 6:51 AM UTC

Slight EUR weakness after German orders data unlikely to extend far. JPY decline this week looks overdone

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 7th

May 7, 2024 6:10 AM UTC

RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.35%
Further downside seen for USD/JPY
USD could also slip lower against riskier currencies

Asia Summary and Highlights 7 May

May 7, 2024 6:09 AM UTC

RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%

AUD/USD flows: RBA remain on hold

May 7, 2024 6:07 AM UTC

RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%

AUD/USD flows: Soft Q1 Retail sales

May 7, 2024 4:04 AM UTC

Australian Q1 Retail sales lower than expected

USD/JPY flows: Grinding higher

May 7, 2024 3:57 AM UTC

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi has no comment on currency intervention
Japan's Kanda says no comment on Yellen's comments on FX

North American Summary and Highlights 6 May

May 6, 2024 7:36 PM UTC

Overview - In a generally quiet session the USD held firm versus the JPY while modest slippage elsewhere faded.  

Psychology for major markets May 6th

May 6, 2024 6:52 PM UTC

USD tone softening as as softer non-farm payroll sustains yields drop post-FOMC. 

USD/JPY Flows: JPY Consolidation with Mixed Views

May 6, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

JPY has stablised in U.S. trading, with near-term views in the market mixed. 

Preview: Due May 16 - U.S. Apr Housing Starts and Permits - Housing sector losing momentum

May 6, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

We expect April housing starts to rise by 4.5% to 1380k after a 14.7% March decline while permits fall by 1.2% to 1450k after a 3.7% March decline. This would be consistent with the housing sector losing some momentum entering Q2 in response to rising mortgage rates in Q1.

FX Weekly Strategy: May 6th-10th

May 6, 2024 10:07 AM UTC

USD/JPY returns to previous highs after BoJ action
Further downside seen for USD/JPY
USD could also slip lower against riskier currencies
SEK may rise as Riksbank leaves rate hike until June
GBP vulnerable to more dovish BoE stance

European Summary and Highlights 06 May

May 6, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

USD/JPY remains in focus in holiday thinned European trade.  

GBP/USD Flows: GBP bounce but BOE Risks Still on Thursday

May 6, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

GBP has pushed higher on short-covering, but the BOE meeting could have dovish hints still on Thursday. 

EUR/USD Flows: Sideways but Policy and Ukraine in Focus

May 6, 2024 7:17 AM UTC

Quiet conditions with the UK closed, but some focus on Fed and ECB prospects. 

Asia Summary and Highlights 6 May

May 6, 2024 4:24 AM UTC

USD/JPY up a figure 

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, May 6th-10th

May 6, 2024 4:20 AM UTC

USD/JPY returns to previous highs after BoJ action
Further downside seen for USD/JPY
USD could also slip lower against riskier currencies
SEK may rise as Riksbank leaves rate hike until June
GBP vulnerable to more dovish BoE stance