GBP flows: GBP weakens as 2 MPC members vote for a rate cut

May 9, 2024 11:19 AM UTC

UK rates left unchanged, but deputy governor Ramsden joins Dhingra in voting for a cut.

GBP flows: GBP benefiting from risk positive tone

April 25, 2024 9:16 AM UTC

GBP rising this morning in general risk positive market. BHP-Anglo takeover deal unlikely to be relevant

EUR, GBP flows: Weak German retail data puts some downward pressure on EUR

March 28, 2024 7:19 AM UTC

German retail sales fall again, underlining European growth underperformance.

GBP flows: GBP stays soft after retail sales data

March 22, 2024 7:31 AM UTC

GBP stays on the back foot after retail sales data shows little change in underlying trends. 

GBP flows: GBP slightly softer after UK MPC leaves rates on hold

March 21, 2024 12:23 PM UTC

GBP has weakened modestly as BoE leaves rates unchanged with an 8-1 vote. Two hawks from the February meeting now voting for no change

GBP flows: GBP little changed after CPI

March 20, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

UK February CPI slightly softer than expected, but still strong services inflation makes it unliekly BoE hawks will turn dovish

GBP flows: GBP steady after GDP but risks on the downside

March 13, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

GBP not much changed after GDP comes in in line with consensus, but underlying picture remains weak

GBP flows: GBP softer after Labour market data

March 12, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

GBP softer after earnings data shows weakness and unemployment rises. Scope above 0.8550 in EUR/GBP

GBP flows: GBP downside risks on BoE testimony

February 20, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

BoE testimony may well be more dovish in view of recent developments, suggesting GBP downside risks

GBP flows: GBP rallies modestly as retail sales bounce

February 16, 2024 7:21 AM UTC

January retail sales reversed the December decline, but the data tells us little and GBP still looks biased lower after this week's data

GBP flows: GBP downside risks after weak GDP

February 15, 2024 7:23 AM UTC

Revisions lead to lager than expected 0.3% decline in UK Q4 GDP, suggesting downside risks for GBP

GBP flows: GBP slightly lower after softer CPI

February 14, 2024 7:20 AM UTC

UK January CPI slightly softer than expected, but y/y unchanged from December and data unlikely to change BoE stance

EUR, GBP flows: EUR and particularly GBP vulnerable to PMIs

January 24, 2024 7:37 AM UTC

EUR PMIs expected to recover slightly, but risk of little change, while UK outperformance in recent months may be partly reversed

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF flows: USD/CHF Leads the Europeans

December 28, 2023 8:19 AM UTC

European trading has seen a soft start for the USD, as sentiment and end of year flows keep the USD on the defensive.  While the main short-term focus is the Asia surge in the JPY, the USD also remains soft against European majors.  Once again USDCHF is moving ahead of EURUSD and GBPUSD, with EURC

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD flows: NY USD Decline

December 27, 2023 4:55 PM UTC

The USD has lost ground in North American trading against most currencies.  The move was flow and sentiment driven rather than new news, with EUR and GBP/NOK and SEK gaining a similar percentage and AUD and JPY somewhat less.  However, traders indicate that the difference is not major and the key

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: Sentiment Remain GBP Negative

December 21, 2023 8:50 AM UTC

GBP has stabilised against the EUR, but the tone remains mild negative with Wednesday’a much weaker than expected UK CPI data having prompted the money market to price in close to six 25bps rate cuts in 2024.  Traders feel that GBP can drift out versus EUR, though some also note Thursday comments

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: CPI Trigger BOE Spring Rate Cut Hopes

December 20, 2023 7:17 AM UTC

GBP has fallen after the much lower than expected UK CPI figure, with the ONS indicating that it was driven by eight sub categories.  The sharp decline in core CPI from 5.7% to 5.1%, will provide comfort in itself to the BOE but will also raise questions whether UK inflation is slowing more quickly

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows: Focus on PMIs after hawkish European central bank statements

December 15, 2023 7:59 AM UTC

A relatively quiet overnight session sees most of the majors return to Europe little changed from Thursday closing levels. The clearly hawkish tone from the ECB and the BoE has given European currencies a boost, and the bounce is likely to be sustained as long as risk appetite remains positive. The

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: GBP gains as BoE remains relatively hawkish

December 14, 2023 12:14 PM UTC

The Bank of England have left rates unchanged, but the decision was only carried 6-3 once again, with the three hawks continuing to vote for a rate hike. This has pulled GBP higher in response, with EUR/GBP dropping around 20 pips, as UK 2 year yields have moved around 5 pips higher. This only parti

EUR/GBP flows: GBP down on weak UK GDP but can fall further

December 13, 2023 7:29 AM UTC

Much weaker than expected UK GDP in October has sent GBP lower, although the initial reaction has been quite modest. EUR/GBP has popped above 0.86, but we suspect there are more gains to come as the 0.3% decline in GDP is likely to impact expectations of Q4 GDP as a whole and convince at least one o

EUR/GBP flows: GBP edges lower after soft labour market data

December 12, 2023 7:36 AM UTC

The UK labour market data is modestly on the weak side of expectations. Average earnings growth was below expectations both excluding and particularly including bonuses. The claimant count rose again, and the more up to date HMRC data showed a decline in employment and a further decline in pay growt