EUR/USD-Commentary

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May 13, 2024

USD, JPY flows: FX steady but USD downside risks rising
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May 13, 2024 6:37 AM UTC

USD steady in quiet trading but rising JGB yields and softer US data suggest USD/JPY downside risks

May 10, 2024

USD flows: USD softer after weak UoM confidence
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May 10, 2024 2:22 PM UTC

University of Michigan confidence data shows sharp decline - USD may come under more pressure

May 09, 2024

USD flows: USD slips lower on higher initial claims
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May 9, 2024 1:04 PM UTC

Initial claims highest since August, USD lower with yields

May 08, 2024

EUR, JPY, SEK flows: Firm USD tone hard to justify, SEK in focus
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May 8, 2024 6:52 AM UTC

USD firm overnight without an obvious rationale. German production data EUR positive. JPY softening but BoJ risks rising. Riksbank meeting in focus.

May 07, 2024

EUR, JPY flows: EUR edges lower, JPY decline overdone
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May 7, 2024 6:51 AM UTC

Slight EUR weakness after German orders data unlikely to extend far. JPY decline this week looks overdone

May 06, 2024

GBP/USD Flows: GBP bounce but BOE Risks Still on Thursday
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May 6, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

GBP has pushed higher on short-covering, but the BOE meeting could have dovish hints still on Thursday. 

EUR/USD Flows: Sideways but Policy and Ukraine in Focus
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May 6, 2024 7:17 AM UTC

Quiet conditions with the UK closed, but some focus on Fed and ECB prospects. 

May 03, 2024

USD flows: USD knocked lower by weaker US employment report
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May 3, 2024 12:48 PM UTC

US emplyoment report only modestly weaker than expected, but weaker in all categories, JPY benefiting the most, but scope for USD losses elsewhere as well.

May 02, 2024

USD flows: USD softer after FOMC and BoJ raid
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May 2, 2024 6:50 AM UTC

USD falls back with US yields with BoJ amplifying JPY strength

May 01, 2024

USD flows: USD edges lower after softish ISM
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May 1, 2024 2:23 PM UTC

Softer ISM follows similarly soft S&P PMI but focus still on FOMC

USD flows: USD firms slightly after ADP but focus on ISM and FOMC
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May 1, 2024 12:24 PM UTC

Marginally stronger than expected ADP employment won't change expectations for Friday's employment report. More scope for movement on ISM, but in practice a fairly steady market likely before the FOMC.

USD flows: USD firm but risks to the downside
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May 1, 2024 7:03 AM UTC

USD gains since the employment cost index put it at levels that look vulnerable

April 30, 2024

USD flows: USD gains on stronger employment cost index
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April 30, 2024 1:03 PM UTC

Employment cost index pushes US yields and the USD higher

EUR flows: EUR stays steady despite strong GDP
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April 30, 2024 8:33 AM UTC

Eurozone GDP beating consensus, suggesting upside risks for EUR

EUR flows: EUR soft despite stronger data
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April 30, 2024 6:55 AM UTC

French GDP and German retail sales on the strong side, but EUR/USD initially soft. But little reason to move away from 1.07.

April 26, 2024

USD flows: Mild relief after PCE
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April 26, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Not much FX reaction to PCE data

April 25, 2024

USD flows: USD up slightly after GDP
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April 25, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

Market focusing on higher PCE deflator and solid domestic growth so US yields and the USD modestly higher

April 24, 2024

EUR flows: EUR/USD little changed on IFO
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April 24, 2024 9:02 AM UTC

EUR/USD briefly blipped higher on IFO, but has resumed mild decline

April 23, 2024

USD flows: USD down after weaker S&P PMIs
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April 23, 2024 2:09 PM UTC

USD lower as S&P PMIs dip unexpectedly

EUR flows: EUR up on stronger PMIs
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April 23, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

Stronger services PMIs boost EUR/USD, but upside looks limited

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, CAD flows: PMIs awaited, AUD and CAD rallies look fragile
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April 23, 2024 6:44 AM UTC

PMIs awaited with mild downside bias for European currencies. AUD and CAD gains looks suspect given yield spread picture

April 22, 2024

USD, EUR, JPY, CHF flows: JPY under pressure as risk sentiment recovers
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April 22, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

USD/JPY and EUR/JPY testing the highs. EUR/USD steady

April 18, 2024

USD flows: USD well supported after Philly Fed strength
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April 18, 2024 1:12 PM UTC

USD marginally higher after Philly Fed, with highest manufacturing index for 2 years

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP flows: USD softer as yields dip
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April 18, 2024 6:52 AM UTC

USD corrected lower with US yields overnight. Little news scheduled today but Fed speakers could drive trade. GBP softer after Bailey comments

April 15, 2024

USD, EUR, CHF, JPY flows: USD firm on retail sales, JPY under pressure
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April 15, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Stronger thna expected retail sales keep the USD well bid. JPY under pressure but risk of intervention rising.

USD, EUR, CHF, JPY flows: USD firm, risk appetite recovering, JPY weak
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April 15, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

Market seeing Iran attack on Israel as less bad than feared, risk appetite edging up, JPY weakening 

April 12, 2024

EUR, USD, CHF, JPY flows: CHF and JPY gain ground as yields and equities fall
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April 12, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

Declining yields and equities in both Europe and US putting JPY and CHF on the front foot

GBP, SEK flows: GBP firmer, SEK weaker after data
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April 12, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

GBP gaining on better than expected GDP data, while soft Swedish CPI is pushing SEK lower. But neither move is likely to extend far.

April 11, 2024

EUR flows: EUR edging lower post ECB
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April 11, 2024 12:31 PM UTC

EUR lower post ECB, especially against the CHF, but little reaction in EUR yields

USD flows: USD firm post-CPI, BoJ holding fire
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April 11, 2024 7:05 AM UTC

USD holding onto post-CPI gains. BoJ to keep powder dry as long as JPY weakness is only seen against the USD

April 10, 2024

USD, EUR JPY flows: USD up strongly after US CPI
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April 10, 2024 12:51 PM UTC

USD makes general gains on strong US CPI as US yirlds rise. Risky currencies fall most sharply

April 09, 2024

USD, EUR, JPY flows: Market static ahead of US CPI
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April 9, 2024 6:47 AM UTC

Little change in the main FX pairs. European bank lending survey and NFIB survey may be of interest today

April 08, 2024

EUR, JPY, CHF flows: Better risk tone, EUR has scope for recovery
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April 8, 2024 6:52 AM UTC

Risk appetite reocverign, EUR may get support from better German production

April 05, 2024

USD, CAD flows: Employment data USD positive, CAD negative
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April 5, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

USD up on a stornger than expected employment report, CAD down as Canadian data disappoints

April 03, 2024

USD, JPY, EUR flows: USD eases after ISM
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April 3, 2024 2:25 PM UTC

Softer ISM takes the USD off its highs, riskier currencies outperform

April 02, 2024

USD, EUR, JPY flows: EUR edges lower after softer German state CPI
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April 2, 2024 8:22 AM UTC

EUR softer but downside still looks limited near term

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD firm but upside limited
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April 2, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

USD firm as US yields rise but limited scope for further gains near term. German CPI the focus

March 28, 2024

EUR, GBP flows: Weak German retail data puts some downward pressure on EUR
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March 28, 2024 7:19 AM UTC

German retail sales fall again, underlining European growth underperformance.

March 26, 2024

USD flows: USD firmer after durable goods orders data
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March 26, 2024 12:43 PM UTC

USD generally firmer after durable goods orders come idn a tad above consensus, but underlying picture is of risk positive FX moves

March 21, 2024

EUR, NOK flows: NOK slightly firmer after Norges Bank, EUR PMIs mixed
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March 21, 2024 9:50 AM UTC

Stronger composite but weaker manufacturing PMIs leave the EUR little chnaged. NOK slightly firmer as Norges Bank resists pressure for faster easing

March 14, 2024

USD flows: USD firmer after data, but...
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March 14, 2024 12:42 PM UTC

USD firms on higher PPI and lower claims, but weaker retail sales mean data is mixed

March 12, 2024

USD flows: USD little changed despite firmer CPI
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March 12, 2024 12:48 PM UTC

USD reveses initial gains on CPI

March 08, 2024

USD flows: USD softer after employment data
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March 8, 2024 1:55 PM UTC

US labour market data seen as slightly weaker, with strong February employmet offset buy downward revisions to previous months, weaker earnings data and higher unemplyoment. USD/JPY continues to look the most vulnerable. 

EUR, SEK flows: EUR holds gains but upside limited. SEK unimpressed by stronger GDP
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March 8, 2024 7:34 AM UTC

EUR holding onto Thursday gains but little impact from German production data as downward revisions offset stronger January. SEK benefits slightly from better January GDP, but data tends to be unreliable

March 07, 2024

EUR flows: EUR softer after ECB acknoweldges progress on inflation
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March 7, 2024 1:57 PM UTC

EUR lower as EUR front end yields fall follwoing ECB statement. 

JPY, EUR flows: JPY firm as BoJ expectations rise, EUR upside limited for now
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March 7, 2024 7:38 AM UTC

JPY gains ground after stronger cash earnings data and higher reported wage settlements. Furtehr upside scope seen. EUR limited by weak German orders, but still has potential for gains - or losses - on ECB today.

March 06, 2024

USD flows: USD softer despite mildly hawkish Powell comments
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March 6, 2024 3:29 PM UTC

Powell proviees no real surprises, but sounds mildly hawkish in indicating the inflation fight is "not assured". 

March 01, 2024

JPY, CHF flows: JPY reverses gains but CHF weak
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March 1, 2024 7:56 AM UTC

JPY gains on Thurday largely reversed on Ueda comments, but CHF/JPY still pressing recent lows

February 29, 2024

USD flows: USD edges lower after data
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February 29, 2024 1:48 PM UTC

Slightly higher jobless claims push USD lower, but PCE price index is a reminder of inflation dangers.

EUR flows: German state CPIs broadly in line
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February 29, 2024 9:10 AM UTC

German state CPIs suggest national CPI later will be broadly in line with consensus. EZ inflation numbers tomorrow look likely to be similarly in line. EUR/USD risks neverteheless slightly on the upside short term