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April 29, 2024 1:00 PM UTC
We feel that a devaluation of the Yuan is unlikely in 2024, both to avoid potentially politically destabilizing capital outflows but also to avoid upsetting the next U.S. president. Policy is geared more towards controlled depreciation to help competiveness but reduce other risks. The Yuan has a
April 26, 2024 8:37 AM UTC
USD/JPY fell 170 pips in a few minutes, suggesting potential intervention, but this is unconfirmed. If this is intervention more is likely to be required if JPY weakness is to be stopped, but some stability may now be seen until the US opens.
April 25, 2024 7:07 AM UTC
JPY weakness intensified overnight and increased the potential for intervention. This may be seen in the next few days, and the JPY does have potential to rally sharply given the huge real decline in recent years. But a turn higher in risk premia looks necessary to trigger a long term reversal of cu