Flows

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May 10, 2024

USD flows: USD softer after weak UoM confidence
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 2:22 PM UTC

University of Michigan confidence data shows sharp decline - USD may come under more pressure

CAD flows: CAD firmer after stronger employment data
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 1:12 PM UTC

Strogner employment data pushes CAD yields up and USD/CAD lower. But still a good chance of a June rate cut so risks may be to the CAD downside

NOK flows: NOK edges higher after CPI
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

Norway CPI mildly stronger than expected, suggesting scope for NOK gains

GBP flows: GBP recovers on stronger GDP
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

UK GDP rises a better than expected 0.6% in Q1, but breakdown looks suspicious. Nevertheless, GBP likely to hold firm short term

AUD/USD flows: Slips on U.S. EV sanction news
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 4:59 AM UTC

The US planning to impose tariffs on EVs from China after review

USD/JPY flows: Household spending rebounds
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 3:39 AM UTC

Jawboning continues
Japan March Household Spending +1.2% m/m (expected -0.3%)

May 09, 2024

USD flows: USD slips lower on higher initial claims
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 1:04 PM UTC

Initial claims highest since August, USD lower with yields

GBP flows: GBP weakens as 2 MPC members vote for a rate cut
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 11:19 AM UTC

UK rates left unchanged, but deputy governor Ramsden joins Dhingra in voting for a cut.

JPY flows: JPY still soft despite hawkish BoJ
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 6:35 AM UTC

Boj sounded hawkish, but JPY softer as cash earnings disappoint. 

USD/JPY flows: Continue to be higher after BoJ summary of opinion
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 5:59 AM UTC

BoJ summary of opinion shows more hawkish members
But March wage data disappoints

May 08, 2024

SEK flows: SEK lower after Riksbank cut
Paying Article

May 8, 2024 7:52 AM UTC

Riksbank cut rates as most expected, and guide for 2 more cuts this year. SEK lower, but remains at low levels and has scope to rally.

EUR, JPY, SEK flows: Firm USD tone hard to justify, SEK in focus
Paying Article

May 8, 2024 6:52 AM UTC

USD firm overnight without an obvious rationale. German production data EUR positive. JPY softening but BoJ risks rising. Riksbank meeting in focus.

AUD/USD flows: Dragged by regional sentiment
Paying Article

May 8, 2024 5:17 AM UTC

Soft regional sentiment and strong USD

USD/JPY flows: Up three in a row
Paying Article

May 8, 2024 5:00 AM UTC

USD/JPY up three days in a row
Drew verbal intervention from Japanese finance minister

May 07, 2024

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Apr 30th
Paying Article

May 7, 2024 7:16 AM UTC

Modest reducion in CHF and JPY shorts - still extended.

EUR, JPY flows: EUR edges lower, JPY decline overdone
Paying Article

May 7, 2024 6:51 AM UTC

Slight EUR weakness after German orders data unlikely to extend far. JPY decline this week looks overdone

AUD/USD flows: RBA remain on hold
Paying Article

May 7, 2024 6:07 AM UTC

RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%

AUD/USD flows: Soft Q1 Retail sales
Paying Article

May 7, 2024 4:04 AM UTC

Australian Q1 Retail sales lower than expected

USD/JPY flows: Grinding higher
Paying Article

May 7, 2024 3:57 AM UTC

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi has no comment on currency intervention
Japan's Kanda says no comment on Yellen's comments on FX

May 06, 2024

USD/JPY Flows: JPY Consolidation with Mixed Views
Paying Article

May 6, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

JPY has stablised in U.S. trading, with near-term views in the market mixed. 

GBP/USD Flows: GBP bounce but BOE Risks Still on Thursday
Paying Article

May 6, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

GBP has pushed higher on short-covering, but the BOE meeting could have dovish hints still on Thursday. 

EUR/USD Flows: Sideways but Policy and Ukraine in Focus
Paying Article

May 6, 2024 7:17 AM UTC

Quiet conditions with the UK closed, but some focus on Fed and ECB prospects. 

AUD/USD flows: Proxy supported
Paying Article

May 6, 2024 4:19 AM UTC

Chinese PMI and Equities positive

USD/JPY flows: Up a Figure on another Japanese holiday
Paying Article

May 6, 2024 4:12 AM UTC

USD/JPY up a figure 

May 03, 2024

USD flows: USD knocked lower by weaker US employment report
Paying Article

May 3, 2024 12:48 PM UTC

US emplyoment report only modestly weaker than expected, but weaker in all categories, JPY benefiting the most, but scope for USD losses elsewhere as well.

NOK flows: NOK higher after Norges Bank
Paying Article

May 3, 2024 8:16 AM UTC

Norges Bank  statement a little more hawkish than expected - NOK edges up

JPY, NOK flows: USD/JPY under pressure, NOK has scope to recover
Paying Article

May 3, 2024 6:48 AM UTC

BoJ squeezing out JPY shorts. Norges Bank could provide NOK support

AUD/USD flows: Solid PMI
Paying Article

May 3, 2024 5:56 AM UTC

Australian service PMI solid in expansion at 53.6

USD/JPY flows: Dip buyers taking a break
Paying Article

May 3, 2024 5:45 AM UTC

Dip buyers look to take a break before the end of week

May 02, 2024

USD, JPY flows: USD/JPY dips in early US
Paying Article

May 2, 2024 1:09 PM UTC

USD falls back with US yields with BoJ amplifying JPY strength

USD flows: USD softer after FOMC and BoJ raid
Paying Article

May 2, 2024 6:50 AM UTC

USD falls back with US yields with BoJ amplifying JPY strength

AUD/USD flows: Benefiting from improving sentiment
Paying Article

May 2, 2024 5:52 AM UTC

Major equity indexes improves post FOMC

USD/JPY flows: BoJ Hit it When It is Weak
Paying Article

May 2, 2024 3:31 AM UTC

Another potential intervention in Asia time when only New Zealand market is opened
Another five figure drop

May 01, 2024

USD flows: USD edges lower after softish ISM
Paying Article

May 1, 2024 2:23 PM UTC

Softer ISM follows similarly soft S&P PMI but focus still on FOMC

USD flows: USD firms slightly after ADP but focus on ISM and FOMC
Paying Article

May 1, 2024 12:24 PM UTC

Marginally stronger than expected ADP employment won't change expectations for Friday's employment report. More scope for movement on ISM, but in practice a fairly steady market likely before the FOMC.

USD flows: USD firm but risks to the downside
Paying Article

May 1, 2024 7:03 AM UTC

USD gains since the employment cost index put it at levels that look vulnerable

USD/JPY flows: Slowly grinding higher
Paying Article

May 1, 2024 5:48 AM UTC

USD/JPY quiet but upwards

April 30, 2024

USD flows: USD gains on stronger employment cost index
Paying Article

April 30, 2024 1:03 PM UTC

Employment cost index pushes US yields and the USD higher

EUR flows: EUR stays steady despite strong GDP
Paying Article

April 30, 2024 8:33 AM UTC

Eurozone GDP beating consensus, suggesting upside risks for EUR

EUR flows: EUR soft despite stronger data
Paying Article

April 30, 2024 6:55 AM UTC

French GDP and German retail sales on the strong side, but EUR/USD initially soft. But little reason to move away from 1.07.

AUD/USD flows:
Paying Article

April 30, 2024 5:12 AM UTC

Australia March Retail Sales -0.4% m/m (expected +0.2%)

USD/JPY flows: Relatively quiet
Paying Article

April 30, 2024 4:48 AM UTC

USD/JPY relatively quiet  on Tuesday after Monday's intervention

April 29, 2024

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Apr 23rd
Paying Article

April 29, 2024 8:07 AM UTC

CHF and JPY net short positions rise further to new highs for the decade, CHF shorts particularly extended. CAD and AUD net shorts also high. GBP and EUR positioning turn net short.

JPY flows: BoJ intervention triggers sharp reversal
Paying Article

April 29, 2024 6:51 AM UTC

Reported BoJ intervention has triggered a 5 figure drop in USD/JPY in late Asia trade. The upside now looks capped near term, and there is scope for a huge decline, but lower US yields look necessary to trigger it.

USD/JPY flows: BoJ Back in the office
Paying Article

April 29, 2024 4:52 AM UTC

USD/JPY slumped from 159.60 to 155.9 currently
Looks like intervention

AUD/USD flows: Boosted by Chinese property Sector Relieves
Paying Article

April 29, 2024 4:09 AM UTC

Chengdu, in southwest China, has removed home-buying curbs

USD/JPY flows:Longs taking advantage of Japan holiday
Paying Article

April 29, 2024 2:43 AM UTC

USD/JPY jumped two big figures after opening lower
Buyers taking advantage of Japanese holiday and lack of signal for intervention

April 26, 2024

USD flows: Mild relief after PCE
Paying Article

April 26, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Not much FX reaction to PCE data

JPY flows: Sharp JPY rally might be intervention
Paying Article

April 26, 2024 8:37 AM UTC

USD/JPY fell 170 pips in a few minutes, suggesting potential intervention, but this is unconfirmed. If this is intervention more is likely to be required if JPY weakness is to be stopped, but some stability may now be seen until the US opens.

JPY flows: New JPY lows after BoJ meeting
Paying Article

April 26, 2024 6:52 AM UTC

There was no indication of further imminent tightening from the BoJ, and this led to new JPY lows. But US yields continue to be the main driver of JPY weakness, and overnight JPY decline may consequently be overdone