Outlook Overview
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April 03, 2024
March 27, 2024
March 25, 2024
January 11, 2024
Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC
You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here.
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo
January 08, 2024
Charting our Views December Outlook
January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing
January 02, 2024
December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:
December 20, 2023
Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel
December 20, 2023 7:31 AM UTC
We forecast across 23 countries annual and quarterly. Our annual forecasts go out to 2028, while our quarterly forecasts are now updated out to Q4 2025. The forecasts are consistent with the December Global Outlook ‘Rate Cuts Into 2024’ published on 18th December 2023.
The file contains nine sh
December 19, 2023
December 18, 2023
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024
December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC
· Uncertainty still prevails around this central view. The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries. We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back
September 29, 2023
Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel
September 29, 2023 9:32 AM UTC
We forecast across 23 countries annual and quarterly. Our annual forecasts go out to 2027, while our quarterly forecasts are now updated out to Q4 2024. The forecasts are consistent with the September Global Outlook ‘Into 2024’ published on 29th September 2023.
The file contains nine sheets: a
September 28, 2023
Outlook Overview: Into 2024
September 28, 2023 10:04 AM UTC
Risks: DM countries could see stronger lagged effects on the economy from the 2022-23 monetary tightening that could prolong the EZ/UK recession or move the U.S. slowdown towards a mild recession. Separately, in China the impact of the residential construction decline could be stronger than expected
September 19, 2023
August 02, 2023
U.S. and EZ Government Bond Yields and Peaking Rates
August 2, 2023 7:52 AM UTC
Figure 1: 10-2yr U.S. Government Bond Curve (%)
Source: Datastream/Continuum Economics
Rate Hikes Ending But No Early Rate Cuts
Policy tightening is getting to a mature stage in DM economies, with the Fed and ECB now in restrictive territory and the lagged effects of previous tightening yet to fu
June 28, 2023
June 23, 2023
Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel
June 23, 2023 1:57 PM UTC
We forecast across 23 countries annual and quarterly. Our annual forecasts go out to 2027, while our quarterly forecasts are now updated out to Q4 2024. The forecasts are consistent with the Q3 2023 Global Outlook ‘Headline Inflation Slowing, Core Inflation and Policy Rates in Focus’ published o
Outlook Chapters Links
June 23, 2023 12:28 PM UTC
The chapters can be accessed by clicking on the relevant links.
U.S. Outlook: No Recession, but Subdued Growth Will Help to Reduce Inflation (here)
LatAm Outlook: Lower Inflation and Growth above Expectations (here)
China Outlook: Recovery To Fade Into 2024 (here)
Japan Outlook: Trend Inflation To
June 22, 2023
Outlook Overview: Headline Inflation Slowing, Core Inflation and Policy Rates in Focus
June 22, 2023 10:29 AM UTC
•We continue to feel that most central banks are underestimating the strength of tightening on credit/economy and then inflation and the effects of cumulative rate hikes since the start of 2021 (Figure 2). DM central banks are placing too much weight on current core inflation, rather than the
April 11, 2023
Too Much Debt Growth Since 2007: China, Japan and France
April 11, 2023 7:11 AM UTC
With a shift away from the ultra-low interest rate era, some debtors will face difficulties servicing debts. Will this be a headwind to growth and also pose financial stability risks?
Market Implications: In terms of financial stability, China’s ability to control debtors and creditors sugge
