Global Outlook March 2024: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
The wait for DM central bank rate cuts is getting shorter and we are focused on Q2 for Europe, given the sluggish 2024 growth picture in contrast to the resilience in the U.S. Nevertheless, it is the continued progress of headline and core inflation towards, if not through, central bank inflation targets across DM countries that will sustain the momentum towards easing.
Major EM countries relatively faster progress towards inflation targets means that central bank easing from a restrictive stance can broaden across EM through 2024, especially with China exporting disinflationary pressures. The scale of policy easing will vary depending on domestic conditions, with the USD not being a constraint for most countries.
As 2024 progresses, the focus will also switch to key elections in India, South Africa and Mexico, before the critical U.S. election in November. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will shape geopolitics, ongoing wars and U.S. fiscal policy into and beyond 2025.
Equities and fixed income 2024 views are a function of economic and policy forecasts, but are also dependent on geopolitics in the shape of the ongoing Ukraine war/U.S. and China strategic competition. What is the outlook for equities, government bonds, commodities and FX for 2024 and into 2025?
Continuum Economics’ March Outlook will assess these key issues. To hear our latest 2024 and 2025 forecasts, please join our Outlook Webinar on March 27.